May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed’s expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed’s expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
A partial recovery, but still a downbeat picture.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The initial estimate of a brisk 272K rise in May payrolls likely will be revised down, given many weak indicators.
- The case for firms to hoard staff is weakening as the unemployment rate grinds higher.
- The unwinding of a calendar quirk drove May’s jump in average hourly earnings; the trend still is slowing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
A solid headline number, but the labor market is a weak spot.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
ADP is too unreliable to take seriously, though it’s consistent with our payroll forecast.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Manufacturing recovery fizzling out before it has even begun.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
A headscratcher, but an unreliable signal for the broader economy.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Real incomes, spending and core prices increases are all slowing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The spike in the core PCE deflator is over, but Fed officials will want to see more data before they relax.
- Consumers’ spending is on course for another modest 2%-ish increase in the second quarter.
- Manufacturing is in better shape than implied by the grim Chicago PMI; auto sales headed for Q2 bounce.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
A housing market recovery is still some way off.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
GDP details better than the headline, but growth is slowing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
A decent bounce, but the headwinds to consumption are mounting.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Better headline numbers, but the underlying trend is still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Methodological changes do not explain all the fall in the Michigan survey measure of consumers' confidence...
- ...Fewer people expect the Fed to ease soon, while layoff fears have grown; slower spending growth lies ahead.
- Equipment investment looks set for a weak second quarter, despite better-than-expected May orders.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
The drop in sales is probably noise, but the underlying trend is weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sales likely to stagnate for the next few months, at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The lagged effect of tight credit and high rates is starting to bite; we're cutting our 2024 and 2025 forecasts.
- The small business sector is under pressure, and consumers are starting to wobble.
- Sustained slow growth will push unemployment up and inflation down; yields will drop, and stocks will struggle.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
