Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Emerging Asia Weekly Monitor

18 February 2025 US Monitor January's weak retail sales due to much more than just bad weather

  • Adverse weather likely explains only part of the steep drop in retail sales in January.
  • The rush of spending on durable goods in anticipation of new tariffs already is showing signs of fading.
  • …That sets the stage for much slower growth in consumers’ spending in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, January

Manufacturing output held back by adverse weather; surveys point to a brief growth spurt ahead.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 8

Low claims highlight lack of near-term pressure for Fed easing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: PM Datanote: US PPI, January

Disinflation still on track; consistent with 2.6% core PCE inflation, down 0.2pp from December.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US CPI, January

Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Employment, January

Positive near-term revisions offset the subpar January print; a March easing is off the table.

Samuel TombsUS

10 February 2025 US Monitor Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing

  • The recent upward inflexion in payroll growth likely will be tempered by revisions...
  • ...But January’s numbers likely were depressed by bad weather; expect a better print in February.
  • A mid-year slowing in payroll growth still looks likely, but we now look for the FOMC’s next easing in June

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q4

Cost pressures from the labor market remain relatively benign.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 1

Trend still low for now; leading indicators paint a mixed picture.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, February

Underlying services inflation still likely to decline.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, January

Underlying services inflation still likely to decline.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, January

Poor track record suggests ADP’s resilient picture should be disregarded.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, December

Labor demand still deteriorating, amid tight monetary policy and elevated uncertainty.

Samuel TombsUS

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,