US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Emerging Asia Weekly Monitor
- Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
- Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
- But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
A slump in manufacturing activity and surge in goods inflation lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
- Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
- Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Samuel TombsUS
A much bigger rise in claims lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Confidence crumbling even before "Liberation Day".
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Samuel TombsUS
- The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
- Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
- The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.
Samuel TombsUS
ADP distracts more than it informs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Clear signs of an underlying consumer slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
- GDP looks set to grow at a mere 1% pace in Q1, following February’s weak consumption data.
- Fading pre-tariff frontrunning, however, explains the slowdown; core services spending is still rising.
- Tariffs will weigh on real income growth by less than 1%; recession remains unlikely.
Samuel TombsUS
Sales likely to remain in the doldrums.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Gold trade and pre-tariff stockpiling are distorting the numbers.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Equipment investment likely to remain anemic at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Reeling from the tariff threats.
Samuel TombsUS
- Improving aggregate household balance sheets last year masked a big rise in loan delinquencies.
- More people will miss loan payments as unemployment increases and student loan payments jump.
- The sharp fall in stock prices likely will weigh on the March flash estimate of the S&P composite PMI.
Samuel TombsUS
- The economy has never dodged recession in the last 45 years with unemployment expectations so high…
- …But WARN data, Indeed job postings and hiring intentions have deteriorated less dramatically.
- Consumers think tariffs will boost inflation by about 2pp; the reality won’t be that bad.
Samuel TombsUS
