PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, June

A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, June

Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, June

Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators, May

GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, May

IMay slump brings sales back to reality.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence / Chair Powell Monetary Policy Testimony

Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, May

Sales likely to continue to stagnate.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

June 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…

THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, June

Demand still falling amid high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, May

Underlying sales volumes holding up...for now.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, May

Holding on to Q1's gains, for now.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, June

 A broken compass.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, June 7

More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, May

Still waiting for the tariffs to hit.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US PPI, May

Tariff pressures remain muted, for now.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, May

Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, April

Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, May

We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, May

More noise than signal.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Manufacturing remains under pressure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US