US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook
DOGE layoffs not a big issue for claims just yet.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Waiting for more disinflation progress to ease again.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
GROWTH IN SPENDING & PAYROLLS TO SLOW MID-YEAR…
- …FALLING SERVICES INFLATION TO OFFSET THE TARIFF BOOST
Samuel TombsUS
- The core CPI-PCE inflation gap likely increased to 0.7pp in January; the relatively big gap will last.
- Tariffs and rising auto insurance premiums will boost the CPI more than the PCE deflator.
- Existing home sales probably dropped in January, marking the start of a sharp fall in Q1 overall.
Samuel TombsUS
Encouraging, but far from definitive.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Average temperatures and snow cover were in line with seasonal norms last week, unlike in January.
- Homebase data point to weak February payrolls, but they have become a poor guide; wait for better data.
- Expect a low claims print today, but this week’s bad weather and DOGE job cuts will boost claims soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- An exceptionally cold January likely weighed heavily on housing starts and building permits last month...
- ...but the underlying trend in residential construction activity seems to be softening too.
- CPI food inflation is set to rise further, even if the President decides against substantial new tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
The pre-tariff sales boom already is fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Manufacturing output held back by adverse weather; surveys point to a brief growth spurt ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Low claims highlight lack of near-term pressure for Fed easing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Disinflation still on track; consistent with 2.6% core PCE inflation, down 0.2pp from December.
Samuel TombsUS
Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.
Samuel TombsUS
- PPI and CPI data signal a 0.28% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator and a 0.2pp fall in the inflation rate.
- Inflation likely will be close to 2% by year-end absent more tariffs; labor cost pressures are still easing.
- We look for a sharp fall in manufacturing output in January, driven by adverse weather.
Samuel TombsUS
Post-Trump euphoria already starting to fade.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Seasonal adjustment has evolved too slowly to offset greater clustering of annual price rises in January.
- Underlying services inflation continues to fall; leading indicators point to further progress.
- Surges in CPI auto insurance and hospital services prices will not feed through to the core PCE deflator.
Samuel TombsUS
- Headline retail sales were probably held back by a plunge in auto sales linked to supply-bottlenecks...
- ...but underlying sales likely were strong again, as tariff threats encouraged pre-emptive purchases.
- Mr. Powell's Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony was unremarkable, but watch for post-CPI comments today.
Samuel TombsUS
- Manufacturers have hiked prices to game pre-tariff demand, but prices for autos and clothing likely fell.
- Revisions to the seasonals should temper the residual seasonality in the services price data.
- New tariffs on steel and aluminum will have minimal impact on overall inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
