US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Real consumption likely grew by about 1% in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
A slump in manufacturing activity and surge in goods inflation lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The March retail sales report suggests consumers’ spending rose by 1% in Q1.
- But the hit from tariffs points to stagnant consumption, more or less, in Q2 and Q3.
- The 0.3% increase in March manufacturing output looks like the calm before the tariff storm.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Manufacturing output likely jumped by 0.5% in March, returning to its highest level since late 2022…
- …Don’t be deceived; a manufacturing recession is likely in the coming months on the back of tariffs.
- Supply chains look set for disruption, and consumer, industrial and export demand will all soften.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Pre-tariff purchases of auto and other durable goods imply a strong headline retail sales number...
- ...But real spending on goods looks set to slump over the next few quarters.
- Tariff exemptions for tech leave the gloomy big picture for the broader economy little changed.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Samuel TombsUS
A much bigger rise in claims lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The subdued March core CPI reading will be followed by much bigger increases in the coming months...
- ...But ongoing weakness in underlying services inflation should lessen the trade-off faced by the Fed.
- March PPI data are worth watching for signs retailers are absorbing some early tariff costs in their margins.
Samuel TombsUS
Confidence crumbling even before "Liberation Day".
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Uncertainty remains high even after Mr. Trump’s blink; for now, the tariffs imply a 1% uplift to consumer prices.
- …That’s a slightly smaller boost than we previously factored in, but the outlook for exports has darkened.
- China’s 84% tariffs will inflict a 0.3% blow to US GDP; we still expect the economy to slow to a near-standstill.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariff-funded tax cuts would simply give with one hand while taking more with the other.
- The net federal revenue available is likely to be just $200B, after accounting for the weaker economy.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% rise in the March core CPI; it’s too soon to see impact of China tariffs
Samuel TombsUS
- Recent falls in oil prices and shipping costs will offset about one quarter of the tariff boost to inflation.
- The $10 fall in WTI oil prices, however, also points to a 0.1% hit to GDP via lower business investment.
- The fall in financial wealth is consistent with households’ spending undershooting its trend by 0.7%.
Samuel TombsUS
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Samuel TombsUS
ADP distracts more than it informs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
- We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
- The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
- ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
- A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
