US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook
- Truflation has been dragged down by new rents, mortgage interest and temporary food promotions...
- ...But these all will have a small or zero impact on the official measure of inflation in January.
- The manufacturing turnaround implied by the January ISM survey looks too good to be true.
- The most reliable surveys collectively signal a 75K rise in January payrolls, but we look for a 100K increase...
- ...Supported by milder-than-usual weather in early January and a partial recovery in retail payrolls.
- The Conference Board’s consumer survey, however, indicates the unemployment rate edged up to 4.5%.
Trade's contribution to Q4 GDP growth probably significant but not enormous.
- Tariff revenues will total $29B in January, $5B below October’s peak and $15B below official forecasts.
- More Canadian and Mexican goods than expected have become USMCA compliant, entering tariff-free.
- Solid inventories and plunging imports seem at odds; measurement issues likely are flattering GDP growth.
Spending slowdown and further labor market weakness are likely.
- Payrolls have slowed further since the FOMC last met and the best indicator of unemployment has jumped.
- Chair Powell was less categorical that the labor market is stabilizing than the statement.
- The Q3 surge in productivity is just a reversion to trend; AI has been only a marginal influence, so far.
- The Conference Board’s survey likely overstates the gloom, but confidence is down across most surveys.
- Consumers report the labor market is still worsening; they’re usually right.
- Winter Storm Fern will have little impact on Q1 GDP, but the lift to CPI energy prices will linger into Q2.
THE ECONOMY IS UNLIKELY TO ACCELERATE IN H1...
- ...PAYROLLS WILL STAY SLUGGISH; HOUSEHOLD SAVING RISE
- Industrial metals prices have an almost imperceptible impact on CPI core goods prices.
- Surging precious metals prices signal a 25% rise in jewelry prices, but just a 0.03pp lift to the core CPI.
- The slowdown in rents will dominate, likely subtracting 0.4pp from core CPI inflation by year-end.
Consumption strong through November, but on shaky foundations.
Low claims largely due to lower-than-usual post-holiday layoffs.
- Solid increases in consumers’ spending in October and November point to a 2½-to-3% gain in Q4…
- …But the sustainable pace now is far lower, given weak income growth and a rock-bottom saving rate.
- FOMC members’ forecasts for Q4 core PCE inflation were too high; they’re unduly gloomy about 2026 too.
- Tax refunds this year likely will exceed 2025’s total by about $90B, equal to 0.4% of disposable income...
- ...Most refunds will be made over the next three months, facilitating a temporary jump in spending.
- Low confidence and saving, however, mean we expect only one-third of the extra cash to be spent.
- GDPNow’s forecast track record is far from perfect, and its latest projections are based on limited data.
- We think it is overstating the likely strength of consumption, and the boost from trade and inventories.
- The EU’s proposed tariffs on US exports would hurt little, but services barriers could be a bigger deal.
- Low claims likely reflect cautious temporary hiring in Q4, rather than reviving labor demand.
- Only one quarter of the unemployed claim benefits; new entrants are struggling to find their first job.
- Spending will be little changed and CPI/PCE inflation unaffected if ACA tax credits do not return.
Muted rebound in core goods prices suggests tariff pass-through is slowing.
Increasingly untrustworthy.
- Consumers’ spending probably slowed in Q4, despite November’s respectable rise in retail sales.
- We look for spending growth of 1½-to-2%, far weaker than the 3.5% leap in Q3.
- The latest PPI data show retailers are continuing to shield consumers from tariff-driven cost increases.
