US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook
Reliability questionable, but grim reading nonetheless.
Likely sending a false alarm on services inflation.
- The relationship between Challenger job cut announcements and actual layoffs has loosened lately...
- ...WARN filings are a better leading indicator; they also rose in October, but to a smaller extent.
- We agree with the consensus that break-even payroll growth is about 50K, but for first estimates its 100K.
- Goods exports are struggling, as foreign firms run down the inventory they amassed earlier this year.
- Services exports are flailing too, despite strong demand for software; US politics has put off tourists.
- Data centre construction is surging, but it is too small to provide much a of boost to the sector at large.
Tariff-led jump goods inflation likely to be temporary.
- The first ADP payroll estimate is among the worst indicators of both initial and benchmarked payroll data.
- The final data line up better, but only because ADP re-weights its data after benchmarking by the BLS.
- The Treasury’s method for inferring the CPI without BLS data implies a 0.36% monthly rise in October.
- The manufacturing sector has seen little benefit from the new tariffs so far this year…
- …Recent gains in output have been limited to a few industries that dance to the beat of their own drum…
- …Industrial policies have a role to play in reviving USmanufacturing, but tariffs are a blunt tool.
THE INFLATION OUTLOOK HAS IMPROVED...
- ...WHILE HIRING REMAINS DEPRESSED; MORE EASING AHEAD
Rates still too high for a sustained housing market renaissance.
- We calculate tariffs have lifted core PCE inflation by 0.4pp, below Mr. Powell’s “five to six tenths” estimate.
- Pass-through, however, is probably just over half complete, and services inflation will fall next year.
- The looming suspension of SNAP benefits could hit GDP by 0.2% if paused through the end of Q4.
- Chair Powell has jolted markets by saying a December easing is “not a foregone conclusion, far from it”...
- ...But most hiring indicators still point to near-stagnant payrolls; post-shutdown data will spur more easing.
- October’s regional Fed surveys point to flat employment demand and slower wage growth ahead.
- Conference Board job availability little changed in October, signalling a mere 50K rise in private jobs.
- New weekly ADP data are likely to mislead to an even greater extent than the long-running monthly series.
- A 25bp easing in the funds rate is almost certain today; Powell to be non-committal amid lack of data.
- Tariff revenues continue to underwhelm; the ending of the de minimis exemption has been uneventful.
- Accordingly, we are shaving 0.1pp off our forecast for the peak in core PCE inflation in December.
- Charts implying a dramatic rise in “different cell” imputation overstate the decline in data quality.
Services inflation likely to remain in check.
Tariffs still pushing goods inflation higher, but services inflation looks soft under the hood.
Lower mortgage rates boost sales, but major headwinds remain.
- Payroll trends have consistently been a good guide to the economy’s momentum in the past.
- Job growth often responds far more quickly at major turning points than contemperaneous GDP.
- The current near-stagnation in job gains is alarming, despite the relatively healthy economic activity data.
- The year-to-date change in Homebase’s measure of employment is almost identical to last year...
- ...But this also was true in the summer, when payrolls slowed decisively; we track other indicators instead.
- Canada CPI data point to risk of a big increase in US food at home prices in September.
- The regional Fed and PMI surveys are no better at forecasting GDP than just extrapolating the trend.
- Durables goods spending by consumers is reasonably well signalled by the UoM confidence survey.
- Airline passenger and hotel occupancy data are useful for forecasting that segment of spending only.
- The weakening dollar means that DXY is no longer overshooting its long-term link with Treasury yields.
- ...But further fiscal easing and politicization of the Fed are key downside risks for the dollar in 2026.
- Housing inflation likely has further to fall, given the renewed drop in rental growth in recent months.
