US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor
- We estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.36% in February, lifting the inflation rate to 2.8%, from 2.6%.
- Markets expect 75bp of FOMC easing in 2025, but most members will keep projecting 50bp next week.
- Forward-looking components of the PPI, however, suggest services inflation will slow further this year.
Samuel TombsUS
- A plunge in airline fares tempered the rise in the core CPI, but the core PCE deflator likely rose by 0.3%.
- Services disinflation will resume; the contribution of rent to core inflation will be 0.5pp lower by end-year...
- ...That will offset the uplift from 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, keeping core CPI inflation stable at 3%.
Samuel TombsUS
- January Job postings still above summer 2024 levels; no sudden changes in federal postings…
- …But Indeed new postings are down 7% since the inauguration, and layoff indicators have jumped.
- Small businesses plan to continue squeezing wage rises this year; services inflation will fall further.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.3% increase in the February core CPI, but the risks are skewed towards a 0.2% print.
- Used vehicle prices likely fell sharply; it’s too soon to see a big uplift to goods prices from tariffs on China.
- Weakening demand for air travel and hotels likely restrained the increase in overall services prices.
Samuel TombsUS
- February payroll growth was in line with the trend; the downward skew in revisions has ceased…
- …But the jump in economic policy uncertainty is starting to weigh on hiring and firing decisions.
- Federal worker layoffs and fading catch-up growth in healthcare jobs will aggravate the slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
- February’s rise in Homebase education jobs was small only because January’s fall was relatively mild.
- The broad-based jump in Challenger job cuts shows clear cracks are forming in the labor market.
- Trade data likely miscount a surge in gold imports; revisions will result in a smaller net trade hit to GDP.
Samuel TombsUS
- The near-3% annualized decline in GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed’s model is far too downbeat.
- Consumption will recover in February and GDPNow likely is misinterpreting the surge in gold imports.
- The ADP and ISM services employment indicators are both unreliable guides to payrolls.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 175K increase in February payrolls, despite the slightly weaker steer from surveys.
- The weather hit on January jobs likely unwound, and it’s too soon to see federal layoffs in the data.
- Homebase data look alarming, but they are too skewed towards hospitality to be a useful barometer.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico would boost the headline PCE deflator by 0.5%.
- Our calculation assumes trade flows shift and manufacturers and retailers absorb some of the costs.
- We see little risk of workers obtaining bigger wage rises in response; services disinflation will continue.
Samuel TombsUS
- January’s fall in consumption was due to residual seasonality, bad weather and auto-specific issues.
- A February rebound is signalled by timely data on auto sales, consumer lending and restaurant visits.
- A mid-year lull in spending, as real income growth slows, is more likely than a sudden stop in Q1.
Samuel TombsUS
- Real consumption likely fell by about 0.2% in January; adverse weather played a role...
- ...but the sharp fall in confidence points to a sustained rise in the saving rate back above 4%.
- Services sector investment intentions are also losing their shine amid renewed political uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
- CPI core goods inflation will rise to 2% soon, from zero, if the latest manufacturing surveys are right...
- ...But we see little sign of cost pressures besides the China tariffs, which at most entail a 1pp uplift.
- January headline durable goods orders likely were strong, but we see renewed weakness ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Industrial stocks have discounted the recovery in manufacturing suggested by recent surveys...
- ...But we think this apparent upturn reflects a rush of pre-tariff activity that will be short-lived.
- February’s Conference Board survey provided more evidence of consumer gloom.
Samuel TombsUS
- The total federal government payroll probably is on course to be around 200K smaller by October.
- Lost incomes and greater uncertainty point to a bigger 300K total hit to aggregate payroll growth.
- Monetary policy still is meaningfully restrictive, despite the pick-up in M2 growth.
Samuel TombsUS
- The S&P PMI points to growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers slowing to just 2% in Q1.
- The PMI was too gloomy during the first trade war, but tariff and federal spending risks are bigger now.
- Tariff threats also are driving consumers’ confidence lower and inflation expectations higher.
Samuel TombsUS
GROWTH IN SPENDING & PAYROLLS TO SLOW MID-YEAR…
- …FALLING SERVICES INFLATION TO OFFSET THE TARIFF BOOST
Samuel TombsUS
- The core CPI-PCE inflation gap likely increased to 0.7pp in January; the relatively big gap will last.
- Tariffs and rising auto insurance premiums will boost the CPI more than the PCE deflator.
- Existing home sales probably dropped in January, marking the start of a sharp fall in Q1 overall.
Samuel TombsUS
- Average temperatures and snow cover were in line with seasonal norms last week, unlike in January.
- Homebase data point to weak February payrolls, but they have become a poor guide; wait for better data.
- Expect a low claims print today, but this week’s bad weather and DOGE job cuts will boost claims soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- An exceptionally cold January likely weighed heavily on housing starts and building permits last month...
- ...but the underlying trend in residential construction activity seems to be softening too.
- CPI food inflation is set to rise further, even if the President decides against substantial new tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
- Adverse weather likely explains only part of the steep drop in retail sales in January.
- The rush of spending on durable goods in anticipation of new tariffs already is showing signs of fading.
- …That sets the stage for much slower growth in consumers’ spending in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
