US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor
- The monthly inventories data show very little in the way of pre-tariff stockpiling in most industries...
- ...Consistent with trade data showing that the Q1 jump in imports was limited to a few specific goods.
- Mismeasurement of pharma inventories suggests Q1 GDP growth was underestimated by around 1pp.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The FOMC sees little cost in waiting to discover which side of its dual mandate needs most attention.
- A lot more tariff-sensitive data and news will come between the June and July meetings; the FOMC will wait.
- BED data point to a 20K fall in the birth-death model’s contribution to monthly payroll growth ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets have relaxed and the economy is holding up, so the FOMC needn’t signal a June easing today.
- The FOMC will have two more CPI reports and news on reciprocal tariffs if it waits until July.
- The latest trade data suggest pre-tariff stockpiling was very limited outside of a couple of sectors.
Samuel TombsUS
- The 20% drop in oil prices since early April probably will provide no real boost to the overall economy...
- ...the lift to consumers’ real incomes will be offset by weaker spending in energy-intensive areas.
- The ISM services prices index jumped in April, but other survey indicators suggest no cause for alarm.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Tariff uncertainty supported payrolls in April, by temporarily boosting the logistics and retail sectors...
- ...But hiring intentions have weakened and a sharp decline in activity in the logistics sector is in train.
- We’re pushing back our forecast for Fed easing to July, from June, but we still expect 75bp this year.
Samuel TombsUS
- Last week's jump in initial claims was entirely due to the timing of school holidays in New York state.
- Leading indicators, however, are continuing to deteriorate; layoffs in logistics are just a couple weeks off.
- The April ISM manufacturing survey points to a plunge in output and higher core goods prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The 0.3% drop in headline Q1 GDP exaggerates how rapidly the economy was slowing...
- ...Consumers' spending on services and non-equipment business investment kept rising in Q1.
- The tariff shock, however, will be much more intense in a few months' time; stagnation lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- An unprecedented surge in the goods trade deficit in Q1 points to a huge drag on GDP growth.
- We think GDP fell by about 1%, but total private sector demand likely still rose at a healthy rate.
- The looser labor market points to much lower wage growth and underlying services inflation ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We expect GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, although big questions hang over net trade and inventories.
- GDP likely will broadly stagnate over the rest of this year, as tariffs hit real incomes and investment.
- Shortages of products made in China are unlikely to emerge in stores until July.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a 150K increase in April payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 4.2%…
- …Job postings, initial claims and the employment indexes of business surveys were little changed.
- A calendar quirk will depress April average hourly earnings, but the trend is slowing.
Samuel TombsUS
- Small banks have run down their Treasury holdings since 2023, especially long bonds.
- The biggest risk for small banks is further tariff escalation, which would hit CRE valuations and lift yields.
- A tariff-driven bounce in business investment in Q1 will give way to a slump in Q2 and Q3.
Samuel TombsUS
- April’s S&P Global PMI points to GDP growth of 1½% in Q2; the regional Fed surveys are only a bit weaker.
- Tariffs are lifting manufacturers’ costs, but service sector disinflation is ongoing; the Fed can ease soon.
- Post-tariff uncertainty and the upturn in mortgage rates will add to the headwinds facing housing.
Samuel TombsUS
- Fear of a severe economic and market hit will dissuade President Trump from firing Chair Powell...
- ...But the president’s tariffs show he is willing to throw caution to the wind on economic policy.
- The S&P Global PMI likely will indicate higher goods inflation, but services inflation remaining in check.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The Department of Government Efficiency will achieve only a fraction of its spending cut targets…
- …So reduced federal spending looks set to be only a small headwind for the economy.
- The DOGE federal job cuts are also on course to have only a minor impact on the overall labor market.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
- Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
- But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The March retail sales report suggests consumers’ spending rose by 1% in Q1.
- But the hit from tariffs points to stagnant consumption, more or less, in Q2 and Q3.
- The 0.3% increase in March manufacturing output looks like the calm before the tariff storm.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Manufacturing output likely jumped by 0.5% in March, returning to its highest level since late 2022…
- …Don’t be deceived; a manufacturing recession is likely in the coming months on the back of tariffs.
- Supply chains look set for disruption, and consumer, industrial and export demand will all soften.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Pre-tariff purchases of auto and other durable goods imply a strong headline retail sales number...
- ...But real spending on goods looks set to slump over the next few quarters.
- Tariff exemptions for tech leave the gloomy big picture for the broader economy little changed.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
- Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
- Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.
Samuel TombsUS
