US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor
- Manufacturing firms appear to be bringing forward orders to get ahead of supply chain disruptions…
- …That will lift industrial activity, but only in the short term; upward pressure on goods prices is building.
- The outlook for homebuilding remains dim; we expect real residential investment to fall in 2026.
REAL INCOMES WILL DROP THIS SUMMER...
- ...CORE INFLATION WILL COOL IN Q4, ENABLING RATE CUTS
- Online searches for furniture and household goods are surging, and Redbook’s data look red-hot...
- ...But Bloomberg’s Second Measure data—a better guide to spending—point to an emerging slowdown.
- …That subdued steer is echoed by falling airline pas- senger numbers and weak consumer confidence.
- Current fiscal plans imply low-income households will
be squeezed by policy in 2027.
- The President’s budget proposal entails more pain for
households, to part-fund higher military spending.
- Congress will temper proposed cuts to nondefense
spending, but households likely still will be worse-off.
- AI-driven layoffs still look limited, but productivity gains seem to be limiting hiring in a few sectors.
- This drag on labor demand, however, looks relatively small compared to the broader AI economic boost.
- We still think AI is more likely to shift the composition of labor demand than depress it significantly.
- Supercore inflation averaged 2.1% in the 2010s, but failed to fall below 3% in 2025, and has risen this year.
- Unit labor cost growth for services firms is still 0.5pp above its 2010s average, but is now slowing sharply.
- Fiscal support to households has bolstered services firms’ margins, but other supports will linger.
- Core retail sales were very strong again in April; sales in February and March were revised up too.
- But spending looks set to falter ahead, as the lift from tax refunds fades, and gas prices stay elevated.
- We now look for a 1% expansion in consumers’ spending in Q2, but a mere 0.5% gain in Q3.
- Half of the rise in the April core PPI was due to a jump in gross margins; they won’t stay so high for long.
- A further third of the gain was driven by a step jump in transportation prices; unlikely to be repeated..
- Data center investment still is providing only a small lift to overall construction activity and employment.
- April’s 0.38% rise in the core CPI was driven by one-time jumps in rents, airline fares and tax services.
- Surveys point to bigger rises in core goods prices, but apparel prices will fall from weather-boosted levels.
- Measures of new rents have stalled; we look for 0.20% rises in the core CPI over the next three months.
- The hit to April sales from high gas prices and cooler weather likely was offset by strong tax refunds.
- We look for a 0.4% increase in headline sales, and a further 0.2% uptick in the retail control measure.
- Spending likely will slow sharply from May, however, as gas prices stay high and refunds taper off.
- Payrolls have been flattered by the weather and a temporary burst of activity in the goods sector.
- Most indicators of hiring intentions and expected wage growth have weakened in recent months.
- The FOMC will be more worried about the labor market than inflation by the end of this year.
- The tariffs passed through fully to the CPI by March, but energy-driven goods price hikes will take time...
- Used auto prices and airline fares probably jumped in April, while rents likely rose at twice their trend...
- ...The BLS will use a calculation that will unwind its no-change assumption for rents last October.
- Oil consumption has risen despite soaring prices; goods producers are preparing for disruptions.
- Surveys point to a bigger rise in core goods prices than implied by the rise in oil prices alone.
- We still look for a further 75bp easing but we now expect the first cut in December, not September.
- Weak JOLTS job openings in March push back against the theory that labor demand is picking up.
- Soft hiring and low quits signal limited second-round inflation risk after the energy shock.
- Mounting pressures on homebuilders suggest residential construction payrolls will start falling again.
- Tech capex is booming, but not all of this spending is AI-related, and much is spent on imports.
- We think the direct boost to GDP growth from AI investment likely is running at only around 0.2pp.
- Consumers’ spending and non-tech investment are weak, and are in need of more policy support.
- GDP grew by 2.0% in Q1, but underlying momentum was weak even before the energy shock hit in full.
- Consumers’ spending slowed further, while investment outside the tech sector dipped again.
- Core PCE inflation will climb further in the near term, but we expect it to be back below 3% by year-end.
- Most Committee members stuck to language implying an easing bias, rather than placate the hawks.
- Powell’s decision to stay on means the President must use Miran’s seat to place Warsh on the FOMC.
- We look for Q1 GDP growth of 1.8%, with consumption mediocre and investment lifted by the AI boom.
- Regular gasoline prices hit a 2026 high earlier this week, despite the modest dip in oil prices.
- Spending on fuel and discretionary services is solid for now, but demand usually wilts after a few months.
- The labor market components of the Conference Board survey suggest hiring remains very weak.
- The FOMC statement is unlikely to cite “two-sided” policy risk, despite better labor market data…
- …GDP growth is slow, upside inflation risks have eased, and inflation expectations remain unalarming.
- GDPNow’s Q1 estimate understates the rebound in federal spending, but the underlying picture is weak.
- Tax refunds have more than offset the hit from higher gas prices, so far, but this support will fade shortly.
- The BEA’s impartiality faces scrutiny this week when it chooses the PCE deflator input for legal services.
- Tariff costs are down and refund applications are now going in; retailers can hold back raising prices.
