US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor
- Spending rose by 2.7% in Q3, but the stagnation in September likely foreshadows a very weak Q4.
- Real incomes are barely rising, and many near-real time indicators point to a sharp slowdown in growth.
- Q1 likely will be weak too, but bumper tax refunds and a pick-up in hiring will support a Q2 revival.
- The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
- China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
- The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.
EXPECT AN EXTENDED FED EASING CYCLE...
- ...DRIVEN BY A WEAK LABOR MARKET AND FALLING INFLATION
- Growth in average hourly earnings is resilient because fewer entry level workers are being hired...
- ...Rising unemployment, the low quits rate and a wide range of surveys all point to an underlying slowdown.
- The NY Fed’s Williams still sees room to ease policy “...in the near term”, bolstering our December call.
- Retailers usually pass on the bulk of any cost increases to consumers, but bank most of any savings.
- Retailers won’t cut prices only to hike them again if the White House reimposes tariffs via other routes.
- The AI stock sell-off is small so far, but a deeper rout would have a tangible impact on GDP growth.
- Comparing November’s UoM survey to its historical range overstates the depth of consumer gloom...
- ...But the massive deterioration in major purchase plans this year is too big to simply brush aside.
- Small businesses are bearing down on wage growth; pay rises of just 3% will be the norm next year.
THE INFLATION OUTLOOK HAS IMPROVED...
- ...WHILE HIRING REMAINS DEPRESSED; MORE EASING AHEAD
- Continuing claims have returned to their rising trend; Homebase and Indeed data are also weakening.
- Bloomberg Second Measure and Redbook data point to retail sales losing momentum last month.
- Airline passenger numbers have picked up, but hotel room occupancy is now 2pp lower than a year ago.
