US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor
- June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
- Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
- The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.
Samuel TombsUS
- Spending fell by 0.3% in May, with little chance of a June rebound, and further weakness likely in Q3.
- The 0.4% fall in May incomes was due to one-time factors, but real income growth is set to stagnate.
- The core PCE deflator surprised to the upside in May, but the 0.18% rise will pale in comparison to June.
Samuel TombsUS
LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…
THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS
Samuel TombsUS
- Real income growth has already slowed significantly, and will grind to a halt as tariffs boost consumer prices.
- Spending growth likely will soften too; households’ balance sheets are less supportive than post-Covid.
- We expect growth in consumers’ spending to slow just 1% by Q4, down from nearly 3% in Q1.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a below-consensus drop in May retail sales of about 1%, driven by autos and other durables.
- Spending elsewhere seems to be holding up relatively well for now, but that will change as prices start to rise.
- Real incomes likely will stagnate in Q3; households no longer have the means to fuel strong spending growth.
Samuel TombsUS
- Moderate payroll growth in May offers little reassurance, due to the re-emerging pattern of downward revisions.
- Hiring intentions indicators point to payroll growth slowing to about 75K in Q3; federal job cuts will continue.
- The trend of slowing payroll growth will be startling by the FOMC’s September meeting, compelling easing.
Samuel TombsUS
- Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
- ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
- Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.
Samuel TombsUS
- Payrolls in the retail, wholesale and goods transportation sectors have leapt by 200K since November...
- ...These gains will unwind as goods demand slumps, but probably after July FOMC meeting.
- Tariffs of 50% on EU imports would boost the core PCE deflator by 0.5% and hit GDP by around 1%.
Samuel TombsUS
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- April import price data damage the theory that overseas manufacturers will absorb some tariff costs.
- PPI trade services prices—gross margins—usually are revised up; retailers are planning June price hikes.
- Residential construction payrolls are vulnerable to a drop in housing starts; the market is oversupplied.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% gain in the April headline CPI; the egg price surge likely unwound…
- …But rising vehicle prices and a partial rebound in hotel room rates likely drove a 0.3% rise in the core CPI.
- It's too soon to see major tariff-related price hikes, and weak demand suggests airline fares stayed lower.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariff uncertainty supported payrolls in April, by temporarily boosting the logistics and retail sectors...
- ...But hiring intentions have weakened and a sharp decline in activity in the logistics sector is in train.
- We’re pushing back our forecast for Fed easing to July, from June, but we still expect 75bp this year.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 150K increase in April payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 4.2%…
- …Job postings, initial claims and the employment indexes of business surveys were little changed.
- A calendar quirk will depress April average hourly earnings, but the trend is slowing.
Samuel TombsUS
- Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
- Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
- But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
- Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
- Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.
Samuel TombsUS
- The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
- Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
- The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.
Samuel TombsUS
- GDP looks set to grow at a mere 1% pace in Q1, following February’s weak consumption data.
- Fading pre-tariff frontrunning, however, explains the slowdown; core services spending is still rising.
- Tariffs will weigh on real income growth by less than 1%; recession remains unlikely.
Samuel TombsUS
THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING, NOT CRATERING…
- …CORE INFLATION TO STAY SUB-3%, ENABLING FED TO EASE
Samuel TombsUS
- Improving aggregate household balance sheets last year masked a big rise in loan delinquencies.
- More people will miss loan payments as unemployment increases and student loan payments jump.
- The sharp fall in stock prices likely will weigh on the March flash estimate of the S&P composite PMI.
Samuel TombsUS
