Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Chartbook Datanotes Weekly Monitor

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, November

Poor, but likely to improve over the next couple months.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, November

The underlying picture remains weak, despite the positive headline numbers.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, December 16

Layoffs still very depressed, but people are finding it harder to secure new jobs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, November

Beginning to turn the corner, but the recovery will be slow.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, November

Probably an overshoot, but a steady increase in single-family starts lies ahead.

US

18 December 2023 US Monitor How will the Fed's new 2024-to-26 Forecasts be Wrong?

  • The Fed’s forecasts imply remarkable stability in GDP growth and unemployment for the next three years…
  • …They are likely to be wrong, and the risks to their numbers for next year are mostly to the downside.
  • Homebuilders’ sentiment likely is rebounding as mortgage rates drop, with more to come.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, November

Unwinding of the UAW strike hit boosts manufacturing, but output ex-autos remains weak.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, November

Real consumption is on course for a solid Q4, but slower than Q3.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, November

Margins have stopped rising, but yet to start falling, auto dealers excepted.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, December

Sharp decline in inflation expectations is welcome news for the Fed.

US

11 December 2023 US Monitor Falling Inflation Expectations Matter More than Noise in Unemployment

  • The most important number Friday was the steep drop in consumers’ inflation expectations…
  • …The reported dip in the unemployment rate was much too small to be statistically significant.
  • Growth in cyclically-sensitive payrolls is now quite slow, but it’s unlikely to roll over anytime soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, Dec 1

No change to the benign picture.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey, November

Still no sign of a rollover in services.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, November

Stuck in a rut, with few signs of an improvement ahead.

US

4 December 2023 US Monitor Chair Powell's Optionality Line is Nominal, Not Real; they're Done

  • Chair Powell’s heart is no longer in the optionality story; he repeated it Friday but it’s no longer realistic.
  • The continued shrinkage of the M2 money supply is disconcerting, even for non-monetarists.
  • The manufacturing sector is in the doldrums, and auto sales are now trending down.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,