US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Datanotes Weekly Monitor
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
The post-election pick-up in labor demand has fully unwound.
Equipment investment set to slump after a solid Q1.
Sales likely to flatline at best from here.
No preemptive layoffs by tariff-afflicted firms, but cuts are likely when sales struggle.
- We look for a 150K increase in April payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 4.2%…
- …Job postings, initial claims and the employment indexes of business surveys were little changed.
- A calendar quirk will depress April average hourly earnings, but the trend is slowing.
Slowing, not careering towards recession.
Sales likely to drop back very soon.
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Further signs of uncertainty weighing on housing.
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
Real consumption likely grew by about 1% in Q1.
- Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
- Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
- But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.
A slump in manufacturing activity and surge in goods inflation lies ahead.
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION
- People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
- Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
- Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.
Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
A much bigger rise in claims lies ahead.
Confidence crumbling even before "Liberation Day".
