PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, February

Decision-making on hold until the federal policy outlook becomes clearer.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, January

Home sales set to slump in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 15

DOGE layoffs not a big issue for claims just yet.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

24 February 2025 US Monitor How seriously should we take the PMI's slowdown signal?

• The S&P PMI points to growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers slowing to just 2% in Q1.
• The PMI was too gloomy during the first trade war, but tariff and federal spending risks are bigger now.
• Tariff threats also are driving consumers’ confidence lower and inflation expectations higher.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, January 28/29

Waiting for more disinflation progress to ease again.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, January

The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

February 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

GROWTH IN SPENDING & PAYROLLS TO SLOW MID-YEAR…

• …FALLING SERVICES INFLATION TO OFFSET THE TARIFF BOOST

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, February

Reality bites for homebuilders.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, February

Encouraging, but far from definitive.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

18 February 2025 US Monitor January's weak retail sales due to much more than just bad weather

• Adverse weather likely explains only part of the steep drop in retail sales in January.
• The rush of spending on durable goods in anticipation of new tariffs already is showing signs of fading.
• …That sets the stage for much slower growth in consumers’ spending in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, January

The pre-tariff sales boom already is fading.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, January

Manufacturing output held back by adverse weather; surveys point to a brief growth spurt ahead.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 8

Low claims highlight lack of near-term pressure for Fed easing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: PM Datanote: US PPI, January

Disinflation still on track; consistent with 2.6% core PCE inflation, down 0.2pp from December.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US CPI, January

Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, January

Post-Trump euphoria already starting to fade.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, February

Tariffs worries continue to weigh on confidence.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Employment, January

Positive near-term revisions offset the subpar January print; a March easing is off the table.

Samuel TombsUS

10 February 2025 US Monitor Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing

• The recent upward inflexion in payroll growth likely will be tempered by revisions...
• ...But January’s numbers likely were depressed by bad weather; expect a better print in February.
• A mid-year slowing in payroll growth still looks likely, but we now look for the FOMC’s next easing in June

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q4

Cost pressures from the labor market remain relatively benign.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US