US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Datanotes Weekly Monitor
- We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
- …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
- …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.
Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.
Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.
Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.
CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...
- ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE
The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.
Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.
Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.
- The jump in June education jobs is more likely to be revised away than to unwind over coming months.
- June education jobs were revised down in 2022, 2023 and 2024; no other data corroborate the 2025 jump.
- A structural break following a mid-2024 methodology change makes the Michigan survey hard to believe.
Services disinflation is partly countering the tariff uplift to goods prices.
A knock-out punch to the tariff inflation deniers.
- The slowdown in consumption this year has been sharpest in areas dominated by higher earners...
- ...Slower asset price gains and expected real wage declines have weighed more than tax hike risk.
- Mortgage applications have risen sharply; people are fed up waiting for mortgage rates to fall.
Committee is more clearly split; weaker labor market to tip the balance by September.
Plunging response rate raises big questions about reliability.
- June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
- Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
- The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.
A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.
Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.
Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.
- Spending fell by 0.3% in May, with little chance of a June rebound, and further weakness likely in Q3.
- The 0.4% fall in May incomes was due to one-time factors, but real income growth is set to stagnate.
- The core PCE deflator surprised to the upside in May, but the 0.18% rise will pale in comparison to June.
