PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, October 2025

October's strength in control sales looks unlikely to last.

PM Datanote: US Employment, November 2025

Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, December 2025

Likely a high watermark for now.

PM Datanote: US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, December 2025

Manufacturing capex and hiring likely to remain very weak

15 December 2025 US Monitor November employment report to sustain pressure on the Fed to ease

• We expect a first estimate of a mere 50K rise in November payrolls, despite slightly better surveys...
• ...Retailers have hired relatively few seasonal workers; the upward bias in the first estimate should be mild.
• The unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in November, from 4.4% in October.

PM Datanote: US Employment Cost Index, Q3 2025

Much weaker wage growth likely lies ahead.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending / Michigan Consumer Survey

Soft September sets for stage for more consumer weakness in Q4.

8 December 2025 US Monitor Consumer resilience is ebbing as year-end approaches

• Spending rose by 2.7% in Q3, but the stagnation in September likely foreshadows a very weak Q4.
• Real incomes are barely rising, and many near-real time indicators point to a sharp slowdown in growth.
• Q1 likely will be weak too, but bumper tax refunds and a pick-up in hiring will support a Q2 revival.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, September 2025

Going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, November 2025

Core goods inflation likely to retreat in H1 2026.

1 December 2025 US Monitor Why are tariff revenues falling short of everyone's projections?

• The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
• China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
• The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.

November 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

EXPECT AN EXTENDED FED EASING CYCLE...

• ...DRIVEN BY A WEAK LABOR MARKET AND FALLING INFLATION

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, September 2025

Improving slightly, but investment still soft outside of tech.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence/Pending Home Sales

Weak jobs market continues to depress consumers.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, September 2025

Weak September sales are a sign of what's to come.

PM Datanote: US PPI, September 2025

Core PCE inflation set to undershoot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4.

24 November 2025 US Monitor Near-4% growth in average hourly earnings overstates the trend

• Growth in average hourly earnings is resilient because fewer entry level workers are being hired...
• ...Rising unemployment, the low quits rate and a wide range of surveys all point to an underlying slowdown.
• The NY Fed’s Williams still sees room to ease policy “...in the near term”, bolstering our December call.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, October 2025

Boost from lower rates likely has only a bit further to run.

PM Datanote: US Employment, October 2025

Payrolls flattered by the seasonals; rising unemployment keeps a December easing in play.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, October 2025

December hangs in the balance, but substantial easing probably still lies ahead.