US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Chartbook
- The FOMC sees little cost in waiting to discover which side of its dual mandate needs most attention.
- A lot more tariff-sensitive data and news will come between the June and July meetings; the FOMC will wait.
- BED data point to a 20K fall in the birth-death model’s contribution to monthly payroll growth ahead.
- Markets have relaxed and the economy is holding up, so the FOMC needn’t signal a June easing today.
- The FOMC will have two more CPI reports and news on reciprocal tariffs if it waits until July.
- The latest trade data suggest pre-tariff stockpiling was very limited outside of a couple of sectors.
- The 20% drop in oil prices since early April probably will provide no real boost to the overall economy...
- ...the lift to consumers’ real incomes will be offset by weaker spending in energy-intensive areas.
- The ISM services prices index jumped in April, but other survey indicators suggest no cause for alarm.
Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.
Households stunned by the tariff shock.
Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.
Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1.
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
- Last week's jump in initial claims was entirely due to the timing of school holidays in New York state.
- Leading indicators, however, are continuing to deteriorate; layoffs in logistics are just a couple weeks off.
- The April ISM manufacturing survey points to a plunge in output and higher core goods prices.
The post-election pick-up in labor demand has fully unwound.
- The 0.3% drop in headline Q1 GDP exaggerates how rapidly the economy was slowing...
- ...Consumers' spending on services and non-equipment business investment kept rising in Q1.
- The tariff shock, however, will be much more intense in a few months' time; stagnation lies ahead.
- An unprecedented surge in the goods trade deficit in Q1 points to a huge drag on GDP growth.
- We think GDP fell by about 1%, but total private sector demand likely still rose at a healthy rate.
- The looser labor market points to much lower wage growth and underlying services inflation ahead.
- We expect GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, although big questions hang over net trade and inventories.
- GDP likely will broadly stagnate over the rest of this year, as tariffs hit real incomes and investment.
- Shortages of products made in China are unlikely to emerge in stores until July.
Equipment investment set to slump after a solid Q1.
Sales likely to flatline at best from here.
No preemptive layoffs by tariff-afflicted firms, but cuts are likely when sales struggle.
Slowing, not careering towards recession.
Sales likely to drop back very soon.
