US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Chartbook
Still set for decent spending growth in Q1 overall, but a slowdown looms further ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 175K increase in February payrolls, despite the slightly weaker steer from surveys.
- The weather hit on January jobs likely unwound, and it’s too soon to see federal layoffs in the data.
- Homebase data look alarming, but they are too skewed towards hospitality to be a useful barometer.
Samuel TombsUS
Manufacturing recovery already showing signs of fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico would boost the headline PCE deflator by 0.5%.
- Our calculation assumes trade flows shift and manufacturers and retailers absorb some of the costs.
- We see little risk of workers obtaining bigger wage rises in response; services disinflation will continue.
Samuel TombsUS
Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Heavy snowfall mostly to blame for the rise.
Samuel TombsUS
Stronger growth in underlying orders unlikely to last much longer.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sales still struggling for momentum.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Real consumption likely fell by about 0.2% in January; adverse weather played a role...
- ...but the sharp fall in confidence points to a sustained rise in the saving rate back above 4%.
- Services sector investment intentions are also losing their shine amid renewed political uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
Finally smelling the coffee.
Samuel TombsUS
- CPI core goods inflation will rise to 2% soon, from zero, if the latest manufacturing surveys are right...
- ...But we see little sign of cost pressures besides the China tariffs, which at most entail a 1pp uplift.
- January headline durable goods orders likely were strong, but we see renewed weakness ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Industrial stocks have discounted the recovery in manufacturing suggested by recent surveys...
- ...But we think this apparent upturn reflects a rush of pre-tariff activity that will be short-lived.
- February’s Conference Board survey provided more evidence of consumer gloom.
Samuel TombsUS
- The total federal government payroll probably is on course to be around 200K smaller by October.
- Lost incomes and greater uncertainty point to a bigger 300K total hit to aggregate payroll growth.
- Monetary policy still is meaningfully restrictive, despite the pick-up in M2 growth.
Samuel TombsUS
Decision-making on hold until the federal policy outlook becomes clearer.
Samuel TombsUS
DOGE layoffs not a big issue for claims just yet.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Waiting for more disinflation progress to ease again.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
GROWTH IN SPENDING & PAYROLLS TO SLOW MID-YEAR…
- …FALLING SERVICES INFLATION TO OFFSET THE TARIFF BOOST
Samuel TombsUS
- The core CPI-PCE inflation gap likely increased to 0.7pp in January; the relatively big gap will last.
- Tariffs and rising auto insurance premiums will boost the CPI more than the PCE deflator.
- Existing home sales probably dropped in January, marking the start of a sharp fall in Q1 overall.
Samuel TombsUS
