US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Chartbook
Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW
- The S&P composite PMI suggests underlying GDP growth is tracking around 2% for now...
- ...but the survey also points to much higher core goods inflation and pressures on services firms too.
- Markets rightly judge that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will boost debt issuance but do little to lift demand.
- The marked weakness in airline passenger numbers partly reflects a dive in inbound tourism.
- Most other near-real time indicators of consumers’ spending remain relatively resilient.
- Existing home sales probably remained depressed in April; a meaningful recovery still is some way off.
- Homebase data signal a 150K rise in May private payrolls, matching the average of the last three months...
- ...But its skew towards hospitality means it is a poor overall indicator; others have a better track record.
- Major consumer confidence surveys have diverged markedly; we suspect political bias is the problem.
- The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening.
- But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
- Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.
Extremely low response rate and partisan divide raise questions over reliability.
Pointing to a sharp fall in new home sales & residential construction.
Recent resilience unlikely to last beyond the summer.
Pointing to a mere 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator, and margin pressure for distributors.
Further weakness probably lies in store.
Tariff shock puts small business under further pressure.
- Retail sales held up relatively well in April, clinging on to nearly all their solid gains in March.
- But sales volumes are likely to falter soon, as the wave of pre-tariff purchases unwinds in earnest.
- A more substantial pass-through from tariffs to retail prices probably will soon weigh on sales volumes too.
- The current menu of tariffs would lift the core PCE deflator by about 1pp, mostly over the next year.
- But uncertainties persist over the speed and extent of pass-through, and the tariff rates themselves.
- Ending exemptions and applying the threatened reciprocal tariffs could push core inflation as high as 4%.
- The April CPI report contained early signs of tariffs pushing up goods prices, with much more to come…
- …But services inflation remains relatively muted, and we think further declines are in the pipeline.
- The April NFIB survey points to much weaker capex spending and relatively subdued services inflation.
- The inflation outlook is little changed by the China “deal”; less trade will be rerouted via lower tariff nations.
- The export outlook, however, is brighter, so we are lifting our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1½%, from 1¼%.
- We look for unchanged April retail sales, but 0.5% gains in both sales ex-autos and the control measure.
Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.
- The monthly inventories data show very little in the way of pre-tariff stockpiling in most industries...
- ...Consistent with trade data showing that the Q1 jump in imports was limited to a few specific goods.
- Mismeasurement of pharma inventories suggests Q1 GDP growth was underestimated by around 1pp.
We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.
