19 December 2023 US Monitor December Homebase Says No Payroll Rollover Yet

• Homebase signals December payroll growth of about 225K; no sign of further weakening yet.
• Lower rates are beginning to cheer homebuilders, who will gain further market share as home sales rise.
• Single-family construction is rebounding, fitfully, but the multi-family rollover has further to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, November

Unwinding of the UAW strike hit boosts manufacturing, but output ex-autos remains weak.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims

Pushed down by seasonals, which will reverse

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, November

Real consumption is on course for a solid Q4, but slower than Q3.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, November

Margins have stopped rising, but yet to start falling, auto dealers excepted.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, November

Mildly disappointing but trends remain favorable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, December

Sharp decline in inflation expectations is welcome news for the Fed.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. Employment, December

No labor market rollover yet, and none appears imminent

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, Dec 1

No change to the benign picture.

US

6 December 2023 US Upward Revisions to GDI look more Likely than Cuts to GDP

• The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
• ...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
• ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey, November

Still no sign of a rollover in services.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, November

Stuck in a rut, with few signs of an improvement ahead.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI/Pending Home Sales

The leap in the Chicago PMI likely is noise, not signal' a modest recovery in home sales lies ahead.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Incomes and Spending/Jobless Claims

Core inflation is falling; spending is softening.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US