US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Global Datanotes
- The current menu of tariffs would lift the core PCE deflator by about 1pp, mostly over the next year.
- But uncertainties persist over the speed and extent of pass-through, and the tariff rates themselves.
- Ending exemptions and applying the threatened reciprocal tariffs could push core inflation as high as 4%.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The April CPI report contained early signs of tariffs pushing up goods prices, with much more to come…
- …But services inflation remains relatively muted, and we think further declines are in the pipeline.
- The April NFIB survey points to much weaker capex spending and relatively subdued services inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- The inflation outlook is little changed by the China “deal”; less trade will be rerouted via lower tariff nations.
- The export outlook, however, is brighter, so we are lifting our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1½%, from 1¼%.
- We look for unchanged April retail sales, but 0.5% gains in both sales ex-autos and the control measure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The monthly inventories data show very little in the way of pre-tariff stockpiling in most industries...
- ...Consistent with trade data showing that the Q1 jump in imports was limited to a few specific goods.
- Mismeasurement of pharma inventories suggests Q1 GDP growth was underestimated by around 1pp.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The FOMC sees little cost in waiting to discover which side of its dual mandate needs most attention.
- A lot more tariff-sensitive data and news will come between the June and July meetings; the FOMC will wait.
- BED data point to a 20K fall in the birth-death model’s contribution to monthly payroll growth ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets have relaxed and the economy is holding up, so the FOMC needn’t signal a June easing today.
- The FOMC will have two more CPI reports and news on reciprocal tariffs if it waits until July.
- The latest trade data suggest pre-tariff stockpiling was very limited outside of a couple of sectors.
Samuel TombsUS
- The 20% drop in oil prices since early April probably will provide no real boost to the overall economy...
- ...the lift to consumers’ real incomes will be offset by weaker spending in energy-intensive areas.
- The ISM services prices index jumped in April, but other survey indicators suggest no cause for alarm.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
Households stunned by the tariff shock.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
Samuel TombsUS
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- Last week's jump in initial claims was entirely due to the timing of school holidays in New York state.
- Leading indicators, however, are continuing to deteriorate; layoffs in logistics are just a couple weeks off.
- The April ISM manufacturing survey points to a plunge in output and higher core goods prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The post-election pick-up in labor demand has fully unwound.
Samuel TombsUS
- The 0.3% drop in headline Q1 GDP exaggerates how rapidly the economy was slowing...
- ...Consumers' spending on services and non-equipment business investment kept rising in Q1.
- The tariff shock, however, will be much more intense in a few months' time; stagnation lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- An unprecedented surge in the goods trade deficit in Q1 points to a huge drag on GDP growth.
- We think GDP fell by about 1%, but total private sector demand likely still rose at a healthy rate.
- The looser labor market points to much lower wage growth and underlying services inflation ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
