US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Global Datanotes
An unreliable guide to growth in services spending.
Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.
- The impact of AI on labor demand so far looks small, even for the most at-risk occupations.
- The payroll slowdown this year has far more to do with trade and immigration policies.
- Auto sales are set to weaken, as an EV tax credit expires and tariffs start to push up prices.
Worsening job availability points to a further rise in the unemployment rate.
Drops in the openings-to-unemployment ratio and quits signals slower wage growth ahead.
- The government shutdown will hold up key data releases and likely will drag on economic growth.
- Another 25bp easing from the Fed at its next meeting seems like prudent risk-management.
- The effective tariff rate has now crept up to just 12%, and a further climb is likely in the next few months.
- JOLTS openings ticked up slightly in August, but the underlying trend in labor demand still looks weak.
- Conference Board’s labor market numbers point to stagnant payrolls and higher unemployment.
- The shifting balance in the labor market points to weaker underlying wage growth ahead.
Lower mortgage rates start to lend a hand.
- Reliable surveys point to September payrolls rising at a similarly slow pace as the past couple months.
- Seasonal problems signal a jump in hospitality jobs, but federal policies likely weighed on education jobs.
- The unemployment rate likely crept up, while a calendar quirk probably dampened average earnings.
Turnaround in consumers’ spending built on shaky foundations.
High prices are holding back sales.
Economy's momentum looks strong in Q3 but unlikely to last.
- We are raising our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 2.5%, from 2.0%, after August’s advance indicators...
- ...But advance GDP estimates missed the last three major downturns; payrolls are a better gauge.
- Residual seasonality depresses continuing claims in September; the labor market is still weakening.
- The Chicago Fed’s new unemployment tracker relies on several inputs with a poor track records.
- The weights of the inputs are currently unclear; other—useful—indicators have been overlooked too.
- The 20.5% leap in new home sales in August looks implausible to us, and the outlook remains dim.
- The composite PMI is alone in signalling a return to 3% GDP growth in Q3; its margin of error is wide.
- But the signal of slowing producer price inflation is reliable, consistent with a transitory tariff impact.
- We think new home sales dropped back in August, adding to the woes of homebuilders.
- The openings-to-U6 ratio has fallen materially this year, and job switchers are no longer rewarded.
- The NFIB, regional Fed, Indeed and NY Fed consumer surveys all signal slower wage growth ahead.
- The tariffs are chiefly responsible; wage growth has slowed most at businesses on the front line.
Unemployment fears resurge; discretionary spending likely to remain subdued.
The puzzle of retailers’ margins has just been revised away.
- The median FOMC participant expects to ease by a further 50bp this year, but several envisage less.
- The risks to the FOMC’s unemployment forecast are skewed to the upside; rates will fall to 3% next year.
- Last week’s surge in mortgage refinancing is unlikely to endure; new rates are still too high.
