Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Global Datanotes Weekly Monitor

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, January

The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

18 February 2025 US Monitor January's weak retail sales due to much more than just bad weather

  • Adverse weather likely explains only part of the steep drop in retail sales in January.
  • The rush of spending on durable goods in anticipation of new tariffs already is showing signs of fading.
  • …That sets the stage for much slower growth in consumers’ spending in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, January

Manufacturing output held back by adverse weather; surveys point to a brief growth spurt ahead.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 8

Low claims highlight lack of near-term pressure for Fed easing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: PM Datanote: US PPI, January

Disinflation still on track; consistent with 2.6% core PCE inflation, down 0.2pp from December.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US CPI, January

Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Employment, January

Positive near-term revisions offset the subpar January print; a March easing is off the table.

Samuel TombsUS

10 February 2025 US Monitor Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing

  • The recent upward inflexion in payroll growth likely will be tempered by revisions...
  • ...But January’s numbers likely were depressed by bad weather; expect a better print in February.
  • A mid-year slowing in payroll growth still looks likely, but we now look for the FOMC’s next easing in June

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q4

Cost pressures from the labor market remain relatively benign.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 1

Trend still low for now; leading indicators paint a mixed picture.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, February

Underlying services inflation still likely to decline.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, January

Underlying services inflation still likely to decline.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, January

Poor track record suggests ADP’s resilient picture should be disregarded.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, December

Labor demand still deteriorating, amid tight monetary policy and elevated uncertainty.

Samuel TombsUS

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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,