US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Global Daily Monitor Datanotes
- We look for a 0.5% rise in total retail sales in August, slightly above the consensus...
- ...Auto sales likely fell by about 1%, but most indicators of the control measure point to solid growth.
- Homebase data are robust for the payroll survey week; shame they are no longer a bellwether.
Surge driven by Texas; the trend is still gently upward sloping.
Tariffs continuing to lift goods prices; pass-through only one-third complete.
- Tariffs continued to lift goods prices in August; we think pass-through is now about one-third complete.
- Airline fares and accommodation services prices are unlikely to rise much further after leaping in August.
- The outsized August jump in CPI rents is just noise around a slowing trend; nothing to worry about.
Labor demand and capex plans still depressed.
- Retailers’ margins began to buckle in August under tariff pressure; expect a significant squeeze ahead.
- Producer prices for goods are still rising in response to tariffs, but the underlying cost picture is benign.
- The core PCE deflator likely rose briskly in August, but no sign of the services price surge implied by the ISM.
- Preliminary benchmarking indicates 911K fewer jobs were created in year to March; that’s a huge revision.
- Most of that downward revision likely reflects the initial overstatement of job creation at new businesses.
- The birth-death model is still make a big contribution today; payrolls have probably fallen over the summer.
- We think the core CPI rose by 0.4% in August, as pass-through from the tariffs intensified.
- Adobe’s Digital Price Index—a good guide to a segment of core goods prices—jumped in August.
- Prices for air travel and accommodation services are rebounding from Q2 weakness.
- ADP reports average monthly private payroll gains of 79K in Q3, up from 22K in Q2...
- ...But the link with the official data is loose and unstable; more reliable indicators remain weak.
- ISM and S&P services surveys point to a renewed rise in services inflation, challenging our base case.
Jump in new orders obscured underlying weakness.
- Home equity lending has grown considerably in recent years, but remains a shadow of its former self.
- Weak confidence, tight lending standards, and falling home prices suggest a big spending boost is unlikely.
- Fewer job openings than unemployed people for the first time since April 2021 will suppress wage growth.
Further falls in prices likely needed to get sales moving again.
- QCEW data up to Q4 2024 imply payrolls have been overestimated substantially; Q1 data will be weak too...
- ...But QCEW data are revised too; the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision is usually too downbeat.
- The birth-death model has been too generous again; unauthorized workers also will be removed from the data.
Jump in underlying orders looks unsustainable.
- We look for a mere 75K rise in payrolls, despite the rebound in stock prices and decline in tariff uncertainty.
- Reliable surveys of hiring intentions have remained weak; consumers report worsening job availability.
- A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August is likely too, given the latest continuing claims data.
- Tariff revenues crept up by just $2B to $32B in August, but likely will reach $45B soon.
- Tariffs have risen this month; imports from high tariff nations will rebound; the de minimis exemption will end.
- We doubt the jump in underlying durable goods orders in July is a sign of things to come.
Bigger falls in sales likely lie ahead.
A September easing looks nailed on, with more likely to follow.
- A weak month at Boeing likely hit headline orders, but orders ex-transportation probably were soft too.
- Tariff-related uncertainty still seems to be weighing heavily on companies’ capex plans.
- A big inventory overhang points to a further decline in new residential construction ahead.
The rebound in growth implied by the PMI looks too good to be true.
