US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Global Daily Monitor Webinar
- Risks to Thursday’s Q4 GDP print are mostly to the downside, but trade and inventories are wildcards.
- Solid consumption propelled final demand, offsetting sluggish business capex and flat housing spending.
- The core PCE deflator probably rose at a 2.0% annualized rate, for the second straight quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The House likely will vote to prevent a government shutdown today, but no real progress on spending.
- Governor Waller doesn’t know how the CPI revisions will play out, they’re as likely to be good as bad.
- Existing home sales likely little changed in December, but consumers’ confidence is improving.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The December retail sales report was much stronger than expected, and revisions were minimal.
- We now think real consumption spending rose at a 2.6% annualized rate in the fourth quarter.
- The Fed would prefer softer numbers, but what really matters to policymakers is the inflation picture.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Both our Homebase-driven model and the NFIB survey signal about 225K payrolls in January.
- Plunging manufacturing hours worked signals down- side risk for December core retail sales.
- Manufacturing is still struggling; no sign yet of a meaningful improvement.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- December’s PPI and CPI data signal a mere 0.15% increase in the core PCE deflator...
- ...That would complete the second straight 2.0% annualized quarterly gain in the core PCE deflator.
- Look for a rebound in the January Empire State index, but these data are wild.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Unsustainable gains in used auto prices, airline fares, and rents explain the solid December core CPI…
- …But core PCE matters much more to the Fed, and it likely rose by much less than the core CPI.
- Further downward pressure on core PPI inflation requires falling margins, and/or slower wage growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The core CPI likely rose by an unthreatening 0.2% in December, but the net risk is to the upside.
- Rents, airline fares, and used auto prices all pose threats to our forecast for the core.
- The big picture, though, is that core inflation is slowing across most core goods and services.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The topline spending deal means that fiscal policy will be a very modest tailwind for 2024 economic growth.
- The risk of government shutdowns has not gone entirely, but it is greatly diminished.
- Watch the NFIB details, not the headline, which is very sensitive to the stock market.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The surge in stock prices is lifting small business sentiment, but the hard activity numbers are weaker.
- Inventories look set to be a big drag on Q4 GDP growth, but the extent of the hit is very uncertain.
- November’s surge in revolving credit use could just be noise, but another big gain will signal distress.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase signals December payroll growth of about 225K; no sign of further weakening yet.
- That said, a disproportionate share of this increase likely will come from healthcare and education jobs.
- The ISM services index likely ticked higher in December, but a steady softening in 2024 is a decent bet.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Jobless claims will be wild over the next few weeks; the underlying trend won’t emerge until mid-January.
- Leading indicators of claims are mixed, but claims are more likely to rise than fall over the next few months.
- The ADP is a deeply unreliable guide to the official payroll numbers; we recommend you ignore it.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The December ISM manufacturing index likely fell, leaving it broadly in line with the cycle low…
- …But falling interest rates likely will lift capital spending and manufacturing activity in 2024.
- The Fed minutes are unlikely to reveal anything new, but we continue to expect rate cuts as early as March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We think the core PCE deflator rose by only 0.11% in November; the trend is slowing sharply.
- Consumers’ spending is still rising, but the rate of growth is moderating after the Q3 jump.
- Aircraft and autos likely lifted November orders, but expect a soft core.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The latest WARN data suggest layoffs remain low, but seasonals will lift initial claims in the next few weeks…
- …And rising continuing claims suggest people who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new positions.
- The jump in December confidence tells us that people like cheaper gas and rising stocks; who knew?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- FOMC speeches move markets, but they are not a reliable guide to what will happen in three months.
- The surge in November single-family starts is noise, not signal; expect a correction in December.
- People’s uneasiness over the labor market signals a gradually upward trend in unemployment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase signals December payroll growth of about 225K; no sign of further weakening yet.
- Lower rates are beginning to cheer homebuilders, who will gain further market share as home sales rise.
- Single-family construction is rebounding, fitfully, but the multi-family rollover has further to go.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
- ...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
- ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US