US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist) Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Samuel Tombs
- Comparing November’s UoM survey to its historical range overstates the depth of consumer gloom...
- ...But the massive deterioration in major purchase plans this year is too big to simply brush aside.
- Small businesses are bearing down on wage growth; pay rises of just 3% will be the norm next year.
- The relationship between Challenger job cut announcements and actual layoffs has loosened lately...
- ...WARN filings are a better leading indicator; they also rose in October, but to a smaller extent.
- We agree with the consensus that break-even payroll growth is about 50K, but for first estimates its 100K.
- Goods exports are struggling, as foreign firms run down the inventory they amassed earlier this year.
- Services exports are flailing too, despite strong demand for software; US politics has put off tourists.
- Data centre construction is surging, but it is too small to provide much a of boost to the sector at large.
- The first ADP payroll estimate is among the worst indicators of both initial and benchmarked payroll data.
- The final data line up better, but only because ADP re-weights its data after benchmarking by the BLS.
- The Treasury’s method for inferring the CPI without BLS data implies a 0.36% monthly rise in October.
- The manufacturing sector has seen little benefit from the new tariffs so far this year…
- …Recent gains in output have been limited to a few industries that dance to the beat of their own drum…
- …Industrial policies have a role to play in reviving USmanufacturing, but tariffs are a blunt tool.
- Continuing claims have returned to their rising trend; Homebase and Indeed data are also weakening.
- Bloomberg Second Measure and Redbook data point to retail sales losing momentum last month.
- Airline passenger numbers have picked up, but hotel room occupancy is now 2pp lower than a year ago.
- We calculate tariffs have lifted core PCE inflation by 0.4pp, below Mr. Powell’s “five to six tenths” estimate.
- Pass-through, however, is probably just over half complete, and services inflation will fall next year.
- The looming suspension of SNAP benefits could hit GDP by 0.2% if paused through the end of Q4.
Drops in the openings-to-unemployment ratio and quits signals slower wage growth ahead.
