US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist) Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Samuel Tombs
- The most important number Friday was the steep drop in consumers’ inflation expectations…
- …The reported dip in the unemployment rate was much too small to be statistically significant.
- Growth in cyclically-sensitive payrolls is now quite slow, but it’s unlikely to roll over anytime soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase and the ISM services employment index signal upside payroll risk for November.
- But the underlying state of the labor market is weakening, and wage growth is slowing.
- Look at the Michigan expectations index, not the headline; it’s a better predictor of actual spending.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
- ...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
- ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Higher rates and tighter lending standards are depressing credit and constraining spending…
- …But the hit is modest, so far, and the deterioration in credit quality is not yet alarming.
- Initial jobless claims are wild around Thanksgiving, but look for a further increase in continuing claims.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The quits rate fell much further than implied by the drop in unemployment during the Great Rehiring…
- …It correctly signalled that wage gains would rocket, but now it tells the opposite story.
- ISM services has tracked sideways in recent months, net; the pattern likely continued in November.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chair Powell’s heart is no longer in the optionality story; he repeated it Friday but it’s no longer realistic.
- The continued shrinkage of the M2 money supply is disconcerting, even for non-monetarists.
- The manufacturing sector is in the doldrums, and auto sales are now trending down.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Core PCE inflation is fading rapidly; in recent months it has run only just above 2% on a sequential basis.
- Consumption spending slowed at the start of Q4, but likely is on course to rise at a 2%-plus rate.
- Look for only a modest bounce in the ISM manufacturing index, despite the leap in the Chicago PMI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
