Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

7 June 2024 US Monitor Private payrolls likely rose in May at the slowest pace since October

  • The Homebase data were revised as we expected, so we are sticking with our 180K May payroll forecast.
  • Rising jobless claims and the NFIB’s very weak hiring intentions index signal soft summer payrolls.
  • We look for a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings; a calendar quirk points to slight upside risk.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment Report, May

ADP is too unreliable to take seriously, though it’s consistent with our payroll forecast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

6 June 2024 US Monitor Dollar likely to depreciate as the Fed eases faster than other central banks

  • We expect EURUSD to weaken by 8% to 1.18 by year-end, as the Fed eases faster than the ECB.
  • Initial claims likely rose last week; public holidays depress them less now than seasonal adjustment assumes.
  • The ISM services index is an unreliable guide to activity, but a weak employment balance points to trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 June 2024 US Monitor The Q2 GDPNow forecast is still a lot of noise and not much signal

  • The drop in the Atlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow estimate says very little; it's still far more model than tracking.
  • April's JOLTS report brings further signs of labor market normalization. Lower wage growth is likely to follow.
  • ADP's data and the employment index of the ISM services survey are hopeless indicators of payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

4 June 2024 US Monitor April quits rate likely still pointing to a further slowdown in wage growth

  • The quits rate likely remained just below its 2015-to-19 average in April, signalling slower ECI growth ahead.
  • Construction spending has stagnated this year, the boom in S&L and manufacturing spending is over. 
  • The ISM manufacturing slipped again in May. And a plunge in new orders signals more bad news ahead. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

3 June 2024 US Monitor Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress needed for rate cuts

  • The spike in the core PCE deflator is over, but Fed officials will want to see more data before they relax.
  • Consumers’ spending is on course for another modest 2%-ish increase in the second quarter.
  • Manufacturing is in better shape than implied by the grim Chicago PMI; auto sales headed for Q2 bounce.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

31 May 2024 US Monitor April's core PCE deflator likely rose at the slowest pace since December

  • We expect a 0.23% rise in the core PCE deflator in April, but a rounded 0.3% print would be no great surprise.
  • Real personal consumption probably rose by just 0.1%, given the drop in retail sales in April.
  • Final domestic sales growth was strong in Q1, despite the low GDP headline, but that's about to change.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

30 May 2024 US Monitor Q1 GDP growth is set to be revised down sharply, to just over 1%

  • Q1 GDP growth will be revised down sharply today, thanks mostly to weaker consumption.
  • Final sales still rose at a decent pace, but momentum is fading, and the labor market will reflect the downshift.
  • Jobless claims probably are trending higher; look out for a hefty drop in pending home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

29 May 2024 US Monitor State and local government construction has boomed; it's over

  • State and local government investment spending has slowed sharply; soon it will fall outright…
  • ...Both tax revenues and federal government payments to S&L are falling; cashflow is evaporating. 
  • The rebound in consumers' confidence likely will prove unsustainable if job growth weakens as we expect.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

28 May 2024 US Monitor Fading rate cut hopes and rising layoff fears hit confidence hard in May

  • Methodological changes do not explain all the fall in the Michigan survey measure of consumers' confidence...
  • ...Fewer people expect the Fed to ease soon, while layoff fears have grown; slower spending growth lies ahead.
  • Equipment investment looks set for a weak second quarter, despite better-than-expected May orders.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

24 May 2024 US Monitor Indicators pointing to a worsening labor market still in the majority

  • Ignore the rise in the composite PMI in May it has been a poor guide to GDP growth since the pandemic... 
  • ...The failure of the employment index to reverse April's plunge adds to signs of slowing payroll growth.
  • We look for a small rise in core capital goods shipments in April, due to a calendar quirk, not an improving trend.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

23 May 2024 US Monitor Markets likely to focus on the PMI employment index, despite its record

  • S&P's employment index has a poor long-term correlation with payrolls, but markets are paying attention now.
  • Leading indicators leave us looking for an above-consensus 230K initial claims print today.
  • "Various" FOMC members signalled willingness to hike in the minutes, but the data has moved on since then.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

22 May 2024 US Monitor Existing home sales probably flat in April, but falls likely further ahead

  • We see existing home sales unchanged last month, but the outlook for the rest of Q2 is dim. 
  • The May rise in Manheim used car prices looks like a blip; sluggish sales will lead to a further margin squeeze.
  • Fed minutes unlikely to change market perceptions about easing timing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

May 2024 - US Economic Chartbook

PAYROLL GROWTH IS SET TO SLOW SHARPLY…

  • …THE FED WILL RESPOND, BUT WHEN?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

21 May 2024 US Monitor Homebase data imply growth in payrolls slowed further in May

  • Our Homebase model points to an initial estimate of a subpar 150K rise in private payrolls in May.  
  • The Redbook measure of year-over-year growth in retail sales has been remarkably strong lately...
  • ...But it has often overstated the trend in the official retail sales data in the recent past; we think it is again. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

20 May 2024 US Monitor GDP growth is set to slow--but not collapse--squeezing down inflation

  • The lagged effect of tight credit and high rates is starting to bite; we're cutting our 2024 and 2025 forecasts.
  • The small business sector is under pressure, and consumers are starting to wobble.
  • Sustained slow growth will push unemployment up and inflation down; yields will drop, and stocks will struggle.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed

Not definitive, but consistent with the idea that the trend is starting to rise.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

17 May 2024 US Monitor A real revival in the manufacturing sector still looks some way off

  • The manufacturing sector continues to disappoint and a sustained recovery still looks some way off. 
  • April's pick-up in import prices likely will have a near-zero impact on core goods CPI inflation.
  • The failure of housing starts and claims fully to reverse recent adverse shifts suggest interest rates are too high.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, April

A broad-based slowdown, pointing to a 0.24% core PCE print.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

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