US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Daily Monitor ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Samuel Tombs
- Core capital goods orders fell by almost 2% in real terms in April, the steepest drop in almost four years.
- Surveys of capex intentions still point to further weakness in equipment investment ahead.
- The FOMC minutes will underline the Fed’s plans to wait for more clarity on the impact of tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
- The S&P composite PMI suggests underlying GDP growth is tracking around 2% for now...
- ...but the survey also points to much higher core goods inflation and pressures on services firms too.
- Markets rightly judge that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will boost debt issuance but do little to lift demand.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase data signal a 150K rise in May private payrolls, matching the average of the last three months...
- ...But its skew towards hospitality means it is a poor overall indicator; others have a better track record.
- Major consumer confidence surveys have diverged markedly; we suspect political bias is the problem.
Samuel TombsUS
- The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening.
- But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
- Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.
Samuel TombsUS
- The April CPI report contained early signs of tariffs pushing up goods prices, with much more to come…
- …But services inflation remains relatively muted, and we think further declines are in the pipeline.
- The April NFIB survey points to much weaker capex spending and relatively subdued services inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- The FOMC sees little cost in waiting to discover which side of its dual mandate needs most attention.
- A lot more tariff-sensitive data and news will come between the June and July meetings; the FOMC will wait.
- BED data point to a 20K fall in the birth-death model’s contribution to monthly payroll growth ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets have relaxed and the economy is holding up, so the FOMC needn’t signal a June easing today.
- The FOMC will have two more CPI reports and news on reciprocal tariffs if it waits until July.
- The latest trade data suggest pre-tariff stockpiling was very limited outside of a couple of sectors.
Samuel TombsUS
- Small banks have run down their Treasury holdings since 2023, especially long bonds.
- The biggest risk for small banks is further tariff escalation, which would hit CRE valuations and lift yields.
- A tariff-driven bounce in business investment in Q1 will give way to a slump in Q2 and Q3.
Samuel TombsUS
- April’s S&P Global PMI points to GDP growth of 1½% in Q2; the regional Fed surveys are only a bit weaker.
- Tariffs are lifting manufacturers’ costs, but service sector disinflation is ongoing; the Fed can ease soon.
- Post-tariff uncertainty and the upturn in mortgage rates will add to the headwinds facing housing.
Samuel TombsUS
- The subdued March core CPI reading will be followed by much bigger increases in the coming months...
- ...But ongoing weakness in underlying services inflation should lessen the trade-off faced by the Fed.
- March PPI data are worth watching for signs retailers are absorbing some early tariff costs in their margins.
Samuel TombsUS
- Uncertainty remains high even after Mr. Trump’s blink; for now, the tariffs imply a 1% uplift to consumer prices.
- …That’s a slightly smaller boost than we previously factored in, but the outlook for exports has darkened.
- China’s 84% tariffs will inflict a 0.3% blow to US GDP; we still expect the economy to slow to a near-standstill.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariff-funded tax cuts would simply give with one hand while taking more with the other.
- The net federal revenue available is likely to be just $200B, after accounting for the weaker economy.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% rise in the March core CPI; it’s too soon to see impact of China tariffs
Samuel TombsUS
- Recent falls in oil prices and shipping costs will offset about one quarter of the tariff boost to inflation.
- The $10 fall in WTI oil prices, however, also points to a 0.1% hit to GDP via lower business investment.
- The fall in financial wealth is consistent with households’ spending undershooting its trend by 0.7%.
Samuel TombsUS
- The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
- We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
- The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.
Samuel TombsUS
- Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
- ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
- A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets pulled back expectations for Fed easing, after the recovery in the composite PMI in March...
- ...But the survey also signalled declining margins in manufacturing, and lower services inflation.
- New home sales likely revived in February after adverse weather, but renewed weakness lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING, NOT CRATERING…
- …CORE INFLATION TO STAY SUB-3%, ENABLING FED TO EASE
Samuel TombsUS
- Jobless claims are unlikely to remain low for long; WARN data are consistent with a jump in April.
- Indeed’s measure of job postings now is down 9% since Mr. Trump’s inauguration; uncertainty is biting.
- Regional Fed surveys for March so far suggest manufacturers are absorbing some of the tariff costs.
Samuel TombsUS
- The median FOMC member still expects to ease policy by 50bp this year, but slowdown fears have grown.
- Most members expect tariff inflation to be transitory; attention will soon switch to rising unemployment.
- Homebase data imply private payroll growth slowed to 50K in March, but it likely overstates the downshift.
Samuel TombsUS
- The median FOMC forecast likely will envisage easing by 50bp this year, the same as in December.
- The Chair will retain all options, leaving investors unsure if trade war escalation would mean lower rates.
- We continue to expect the FOMC ultimately to ease by 75bp this year, with the first move in June.
Samuel TombsUS
