US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- The labor market is weaker than the headline December jobs numbers, but it’s hardly terrible.
- Either way, the Fed’s policy decisions will be driven more by the inflation numbers than the jobs data.
- The soft December ISM services survey is not definitive, but a repeat in January would get our attention.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The November PCE report highlights the significant downside risk to the Fed’s inflation forecast.
- The Fed eventually will have little choice to ease by more than their current forecast of 75bp this year.
- Housing and manufacturing activity are near a floor, but any recovery will be slow going.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed’s forecasts imply remarkable stability in GDP growth and unemployment for the next three years…
- …They are likely to be wrong, and the risks to their numbers for next year are mostly to the downside.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment likely is rebounding as mortgage rates drop, with more to come.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The most important number Friday was the steep drop in consumers’ inflation expectations…
- …The reported dip in the unemployment rate was much too small to be statistically significant.
- Growth in cyclically-sensitive payrolls is now quite slow, but it’s unlikely to roll over anytime soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chair Powell’s heart is no longer in the optionality story; he repeated it Friday but it’s no longer realistic.
- The continued shrinkage of the M2 money supply is disconcerting, even for non-monetarists.
- The manufacturing sector is in the doldrums, and auto sales are now trending down.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US