US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
- Adobe's Digital Price Index suggests some goods prices rose in June at the fastest pace since 2023.
- Primary rent probably rose at an above-trend pace in June, while airline fares likely stopped falling.
- Residual seasonality continues to blight the services price data; expect a bigger rise in June than in May.
Samuel TombsUS
- Exemptions and sector-specific tariffs cover most imports from Japan, leaving the “reciprocal” rate irrelevant.
- Raising the reciprocal rate of EU imports to 50% would boost the US CPI by nearly 1/2%, but a deal is likely.
- The NY Fed survey continues to paint a far more upbeat picture than the other major consumer surveys.
Samuel TombsUS
- Capex rose in 2017-to-18 after the introduction of 100% bonus depreciation, but it was not the key driver.
- Tapering bonus depreciation in 2023 and 2024 left capex unscathed; firms are now worried about tariffs.
- Average hourly earnings growth is often volatile, but the recent slowdown has been flagged by surveys too.
Samuel TombsUS
- June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
- Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
- The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.
Samuel TombsUS
- The average effective tariff rate will rise by a further 6pp next week, if no new trade deals are signed.
- But we doubt these additional tariffs will last; retaliation by trade partners will spur another climbdown.
- The construction slump signals weaker growth in activity and employment, but likely not a recession
Samuel TombsUS
- Rising JOLTS job openings are driven by hospitality firms rehiring to comply with employment laws...
- ...Measurement problems also boosting the numbers; large downward revisions are now common.
- Tariff revenues currently equal 10% of the value of imports, but the effective tariff rate likely is higher.
Samuel TombsUS
- The abundance of weak surveys points to a 100K first estimate for June payrolls.
- Downward revisions to estimated payrolls in April and May also are likely.
- Scraps of evidence suggest late responses from struggling small businesses explains the pattern.
Samuel TombsUS
- Spending fell by 0.3% in May, with little chance of a June rebound, and further weakness likely in Q3.
- The 0.4% fall in May incomes was due to one-time factors, but real income growth is set to stagnate.
- The core PCE deflator surprised to the upside in May, but the 0.18% rise will pale in comparison to June.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% decline in real expenditure in May...
- ...One-time factors likely drove the drop, but the Q3 outlook for real after-tax income growth is bleak.
- 3% GDP growth looks likely in Q2, as the unwinding of tariff distortions obscures underlying weakness.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mr. Powell refrained from providing lawmakers with triggers and timings for the intended policy easing in H2...
- ...But 2024’s small upside unemployment surprise drove a rapid pivot; expect a repeat, despite the tariffs.
- GDPNow’s 3.4% projection for Q2 growth looks about right; underlying momentum is about half that figure.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase data point to a mere 100K rise in June payrolls; Conference Board data point to even worse.
- No other reliable indicators of payroll growth are due to be released, so we likely will maintain our 100K forecast.
- The April surge in new home sales looks very fishy: we expect a slump in May.
Samuel TombsUS
- S&P reports brisk employment growth in June, but itsindex has been a very poor guide to payrolls since 2023.
- The output price index signals an implausibly large pick- up in core goods CPI inflation ahead.
- The unwinding of a one-time uplift to Social Security payments probably dragged on income growth in May.
Samuel TombsUS
LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…
THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS
Samuel TombsUS
- Real income growth has already slowed significantly, and will grind to a halt as tariffs boost consumer prices.
- Spending growth likely will soften too; households’ balance sheets are less supportive than post-Covid.
- We expect growth in consumers’ spending to slow just 1% by Q4, down from nearly 3% in Q1.
Samuel TombsUS
- Many FOMC participants raised their rate forecasts, but Mr. Powell says “no one... has a lot of conviction”.
- The Committee is overlooking several indicators that point to a material rise in unemployment ahead.
- The slump in single family construction is deepening, another headwind to activity and employment.
Samuel TombsUS
Demand still falling amid high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
Holding on to Q1's gains, for now.
Samuel TombsUS
- The biggest fall in headline retail sales in two years suggests consumers are starting to tire…
- …More weakness is likely in the coming months, as tariff-induced price rises hit in earnest.
- The further rise in import prices ex-tariffs in May indicates tariff costs are being borne entirely in the US.
Samuel TombsUS
A broken compass.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a below-consensus drop in May retail sales of about 1%, driven by autos and other durables.
- Spending elsewhere seems to be holding up relatively well for now, but that will change as prices start to rise.
- Real incomes likely will stagnate in Q3; households no longer have the means to fuel strong spending growth.
Samuel TombsUS
