US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor Samuel Tombs
- Expect just a 0.2pp uplift to the CPI if the $10 jump in WTI oil prices lasts; the core CPI impact is a wash.
- We look for a 0.6% fall in headline sales in January, mostly due to a weather-linked plunge in auto sales.
- Winter Storm Fern likely weighed on sales ex-autos too, and the underlying trend also now is weak.
- February payrolls likely rose by only about 25K, below the trend, due to strikes.
- The weather was favorable in both January and February payroll survey weeks, so likely a neutral factor.
- The unemployment rate will repeat its past tendency of rebounding in February after dipping in January.
- The personal saving rate can be heavily revised, but we think most of the recent fall is genuine.
- The low saving rate and soft growth in incomes will restrain growth in consumers’ spending.
- PPI data suggest retailers’ margins have normalized, pointing to slowing core goods inflation ahead.
- Tariff revenues were continuing to fall even before the Supreme Court’s ruling, as supply chains evolved.
- The effective rate likely is now just 8%; revenues are too low and the outlook too unclear for more tax cuts.
- February auto sales likely will maintain the downward trend; risks skewed towards a further decline ahead.
- AI-related capex and wealth effects from gains in tech stocks were major growth tailwinds in 2025.
- AI’s impact on productivity is less clear, although we see tentative signs of an small boost emerging.
- The impact on the labor market still appears modest, despite the scare stories.
- February regional Fed surveys point to sluggish growth in activity and continued capex caution.
- Employment intentions are unchanged from 2025; wage expectations point to inflation returning to 2%.
- The Conference Board survey’s labor market components point to further weakness ahead.
- The share of total consumption by the top 20% has been remarkable stable at 40% over the last 25 years.
- New sectoral data show no connection between the spending share of the top 20% and growth last year.
- High-income households became more cautious, accumulating liquid assets more quickly than in 2024.
- Headline GDP growth in Q4 was depressed by the federal shutdown; underlying growth was robust.
- Consumers, however, will slow down this year and non-AI capex will remain weak.
- The effective tariff rate will be slightly lower under the new tariffs, but the inflation outlook is little changed.
- The blowout in the trade deficit and revisions to the inventories numbers point to 2% GDP growth in Q4...
- ...but final sales to private domestic purchasers likely rose by about 21/2%, in line with previous quarters.
- Core PCE inflation likely undershot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4, mostly due to measurement issues.
- The recent stabilization in building permits probably will be short-lived, given the inventory overhang…
- …Residential construction spending and employment look set to remain under pressure.
- Rising industrial production is mostly due to AI and aircraft demand, not an emerging tariff boost.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
- The rise in the unadjusted January core CPI was similar to typical increases in the late 2010s.
- Used auto prices will rebound, but increases for goods ex-autos will slow after January’s one-time hikes.
- New rents are now barely rising, signalling a substantial fall in CPI shelter inflation over the next year.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
- Payrolls were lifted by mild weather in early January and an implausible boost from the birth-death model.
- Indicators of underlying labor demand remain subdued, implying February’s print will be much weaker.
- We still look for a 75bp easing of Fed policy in 2026, but have pushed the first cut to June, from March.
- December’s soft retail sales point to a slowdown in growth in consumers’ spending in Q4.
- Meager income gains, subdued confidence and low saving imply spending growth will slow further in ‘26.
- Capex intentions remain extremely weak, despite the easing of Fed policy.
- We look for a 0.6% rise in December headline retail sales, underpinned by solid auto and control sales...
- That’s consistent with consumers’ spending rising by just over 3% in Q4...
- ...But soft income growth, depressed confidence and a rock-bottom saving rate point to weakness ahead.
- We look for a 0.2% increase in the headline CPI and a 0.3% rise in the core, despite residual seasonality.
- Web-scraped data point to slowing durable goods prices; Winter Storm Fern likely hit clothing prices.
- Increases in prices for streaming services, live events and rent likely were all much smaller than a year ago.
- Openings fell in December to their lowest level since September 2020; AI is weighing more on hiring.
- Small business openings are falling, casting doubt over the upbeat payrolls signal from the NFIB survey.
- The quits rate still points to a further decline in wage growth this year; the Fed has room to ease further.
- Adobe’s Digital Price Index is uncorrelated with the official data; its January jump should be ignored.
- The US is too big an economy for the 2026 World Cup to have anything more than a trivial impact on GDP.
- We expect a small lift to consumers’ spending in the summer, but even that might be hard to see in the data.
- Truflation has been dragged down by new rents, mortgage interest and temporary food promotions...
- ...But these all will have a small or zero impact on the official measure of inflation in January.
- The manufacturing turnaround implied by the January ISM survey looks too good to be true.
