US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Samuel Tombs
- Regional banks are under renewed scrutiny, oil prices have tumbled, and the shutdown is going long...
- ...So markets are starting to see a meaningful chance of a 50bp easing in December.
- But timely data imply the labor market and GDP growth are holding up; 25bp is still more likely.
- Consumers’ major purchase intentions have fallen sharply, signalling flat spending on durable goods.
- NRF and Redbook data point to a drop in retail sales in September, ending a strong three-month run.
- Most measures of spending on discretionary services have weakened, consistent with a lackluster Q4.
- Households have delevered over the last five years and many have fixed-rate mortgages with low rates.
- Reducing the funds rate to 3% next year merely would stabilize the effective mortgage rate.
- The weakness in the ISM surveys in Q3 probably is understating the economy’s underlying momentum.
