US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor Samuel Tombs
Rising mortgage rates and low confidence are stifling demand.
Margins are unlikely to remain this high for long.
- Supercore inflation averaged 2.1% in the 2010s, but failed to fall below 3% in 2025, and has risen this year.
- Unit labor cost growth for services firms is still 0.5pp above its 2010s average, but is now slowing sharply.
- Fiscal support to households has bolstered services firms’ margins, but other supports will linger.
Boosted by several one-time jumps; momentum to fade this summer.
Stagnant, with no positive catalyst immediately in sight.
A mixed bag; hiring indicators suggest a long wait for a substantial improvement.
- Payrolls have been flattered by the weather and a temporary burst of activity in the goods sector.
- Most indicators of hiring intentions and expected wage growth have weakened in recent months.
- The FOMC will be more worried about the labor market than inflation by the end of this year.
Labor demand still trending down, implying March payrolls jump was just a blip.
Spending temporarily supported by tax refunds; stagnation likely in Q2.
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
- Tax refunds have more than offset the hit from higher gas prices, so far, but this support will fade shortly.
- The BEA’s impartiality faces scrutiny this week when it chooses the PCE deflator input for legal services.
- Tariff costs are down and refund applications are now going in; retailers can hold back raising prices.
Returning to last year’s average; a further recovery looks unlikely.
Initially resilient, but near-real time data now show gas price pain.
- Zillow’s measure of new rents increased in April by less than 0.10%, for the fourth straight month.
- The recent further rise in the vacancy rate and pickup in multi-family starts implies the glut will continue.
- Rent’s contribution to core CPI inflation will be 0.3pp lower by year-end, overwhelming the energy hit.
Retailers’ healthy margins suggest tariff pass-though now complete.
Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
- A record jump in gas prices hugely boosted the CPI in March; expect a further 0.2pp hit in April.
- The core CPI likely will be lifted in April by a rebound in used auto prices and a catch-up increase in rents...
- ...But the fading tariff boost and slowing rent rises will drag down inflation in H2, despite higher oil prices.
- The rebound in March payrolls was driven by the end of strikes, benign weather and residual seasonality.
- More timely measures of job openings suggest labor demand has weakened since the Iran war began.
- Unemployment dipped as some people looked less actively for work; history points to a swift reversal.
- March payrolls will rebound after February’s drop, but a sustained strengthening is not in the cards.
- The end of a major strike will add 32K to March jobs, but recent support from mild weather is over.
- Claims data suggest the unemployment rate was stable in March, but the risks are to the upside.
- The 1990 oil shock was key to the ensuing recession; the FOMC eventually eased despite 6% inflation.
- The economy is less oil intensive and firms’ balance sheets are more robust now; a recession is unlikely...
- ...But this FOMC has been very responsive to labor market weakness; we still expect easing by year-end.
