Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Datanotes Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor Samuel Tombs

6 November 2025 US Monitor Exports are struggling, despite the weaker dollar

  • Goods exports are struggling, as foreign firms run down the inventory they amassed earlier this year.
  • Services exports are flailing too, despite strong demand for software; US politics has put off tourists.
  • Data centre construction is surging, but it is too small to provide much a of boost to the sector at large.

5 November 2025 US Monitor ADP's data are a lousy guide to both initial and final payrolls

  • The first ADP payroll estimate is among the worst indicators of both initial and benchmarked payroll data.
  • The final data line up better, but only because ADP re-weights its data after benchmarking by the BLS. 
  • The Treasury’s method for inferring the CPI without BLS data implies a 0.36% monthly rise in October.

4 November 2025 US Monitor Tariffs unlikely to drive a big "re- shoring" of US manufacturing

  • The manufacturing sector has seen little benefit from the new tariffs so far this year…
  • …Recent gains in output have been limited to a few industries that dance to the beat of their own drum…
  • …Industrial policies have a role to play in reviving USmanufacturing, but tariffs are a blunt tool.

3 November 2025 US Monitor Indicators of consumers' spending are starting to flash amber

  • Continuing claims have returned to their rising trend; Homebase and Indeed data are also weakening.
  • Bloomberg Second Measure and Redbook data point to retail sales losing momentum last month.
  • Airline passenger numbers have picked up, but hotel room occupancy is now 2pp lower than a year ago.
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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,