3 October 2025 US Monitor Is AI a key driver of this year's slowdown in payrolls?

• The impact of AI on labor demand so far looks small, even for the most at-risk occupations.
• The payroll slowdown this year has far more to do with trade and immigration policies. 
• Auto sales are set to weaken, as an EV tax credit expires and tariffs start to push up prices. 

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, August 2025

Drops in the openings-to-unemployment ratio and quits signals slower wage growth ahead.

2 October 2025 US Monitor Government shutdown makes Fed easing in October more likely

• The government shutdown will hold up key data releases and likely will drag on economic growth. 
• Another 25bp easing from the Fed at its next meeting seems like prudent risk-management. 
• The effective tariff rate has now crept up to just 12%, and a further climb is likely in the next few months.

1 October 2025 US Monitor JOLTS & Conference Board data point to further labor market weakness", although that might yet change

• JOLTS openings ticked up slightly in August, but the underlying trend in labor demand still looks weak.
• Conference Board’s labor market numbers point to stagnant payrolls and higher unemployment. 
• The shifting balance in the labor market points to weaker underlying wage growth ahead.