US Publications
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Samuel Tombs
- The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening.
- But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
- Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.
Recent resilience unlikely to last beyond the summer.
Pointing to a mere 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator, and margin pressure for distributors.
- The April CPI report contained early signs of tariffs pushing up goods prices, with much more to come…
- …But services inflation remains relatively muted, and we think further declines are in the pipeline.
- The April NFIB survey points to much weaker capex spending and relatively subdued services inflation.
- The FOMC sees little cost in waiting to discover which side of its dual mandate needs most attention.
- A lot more tariff-sensitive data and news will come between the June and July meetings; the FOMC will wait.
- BED data point to a 20K fall in the birth-death model’s contribution to monthly payroll growth ahead.
- Markets have relaxed and the economy is holding up, so the FOMC needn’t signal a June easing today.
- The FOMC will have two more CPI reports and news on reciprocal tariffs if it waits until July.
- The latest trade data suggest pre-tariff stockpiling was very limited outside of a couple of sectors.
Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.
Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
The post-election pick-up in labor demand has fully unwound.
No preemptive layoffs by tariff-afflicted firms, but cuts are likely when sales struggle.
Slowing, not careering towards recession.
- Small banks have run down their Treasury holdings since 2023, especially long bonds.
- The biggest risk for small banks is further tariff escalation, which would hit CRE valuations and lift yields.
- A tariff-driven bounce in business investment in Q1 will give way to a slump in Q2 and Q3.
- April’s S&P Global PMI points to GDP growth of 1½% in Q2; the regional Fed surveys are only a bit weaker.
- Tariffs are lifting manufacturers’ costs, but service sector disinflation is ongoing; the Fed can ease soon.
- Post-tariff uncertainty and the upturn in mortgage rates will add to the headwinds facing housing.
Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
- The subdued March core CPI reading will be followed by much bigger increases in the coming months...
- ...But ongoing weakness in underlying services inflation should lessen the trade-off faced by the Fed.
- March PPI data are worth watching for signs retailers are absorbing some early tariff costs in their margins.
- Uncertainty remains high even after Mr. Trump’s blink; for now, the tariffs imply a 1% uplift to consumer prices.
- …That’s a slightly smaller boost than we previously factored in, but the outlook for exports has darkened.
- China’s 84% tariffs will inflict a 0.3% blow to US GDP; we still expect the economy to slow to a near-standstill.
- Tariff-funded tax cuts would simply give with one hand while taking more with the other.
- The net federal revenue available is likely to be just $200B, after accounting for the weaker economy.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% rise in the March core CPI; it’s too soon to see impact of China tariffs
- Recent falls in oil prices and shipping costs will offset about one quarter of the tariff boost to inflation.
- The $10 fall in WTI oil prices, however, also points to a 0.1% hit to GDP via lower business investment.
- The fall in financial wealth is consistent with households’ spending undershooting its trend by 0.7%.
