US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Daily Monitor Samuel Tombs
- The abundance of weak surveys points to a 100K first estimate for June payrolls.
- Downward revisions to estimated payrolls in April and May also are likely.
- Scraps of evidence suggest late responses from struggling small businesses explains the pattern.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% decline in real expenditure in May...
- ...One-time factors likely drove the drop, but the Q3 outlook for real after-tax income growth is bleak.
- 3% GDP growth looks likely in Q2, as the unwinding of tariff distortions obscures underlying weakness.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mr. Powell refrained from providing lawmakers with triggers and timings for the intended policy easing in H2...
- ...But 2024’s small upside unemployment surprise drove a rapid pivot; expect a repeat, despite the tariffs.
- GDPNow’s 3.4% projection for Q2 growth looks about right; underlying momentum is about half that figure.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase data point to a mere 100K rise in June payrolls; Conference Board data point to even worse.
- No other reliable indicators of payroll growth are due to be released, so we likely will maintain our 100K forecast.
- The April surge in new home sales looks very fishy: we expect a slump in May.
Samuel TombsUS
- S&P reports brisk employment growth in June, but itsindex has been a very poor guide to payrolls since 2023.
- The output price index signals an implausibly large pick- up in core goods CPI inflation ahead.
- The unwinding of a one-time uplift to Social Security payments probably dragged on income growth in May.
Samuel TombsUS
LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…
THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS
Samuel TombsUS
- Many FOMC participants raised their rate forecasts, but Mr. Powell says “no one... has a lot of conviction”.
- The Committee is overlooking several indicators that point to a material rise in unemployment ahead.
- The slump in single family construction is deepening, another headwind to activity and employment.
Samuel TombsUS
- The biggest fall in headline retail sales in two years suggests consumers are starting to tire…
- …More weakness is likely in the coming months, as tariff-induced price rises hit in earnest.
- The further rise in import prices ex-tariffs in May indicates tariff costs are being borne entirely in the US.
Samuel TombsUS
- CPI and PPI data imply a 0.12% rise in the May core PCE deflator, but 0.3-to-0.4% prints lie straight ahead.
- Momentum in services prices will rebuild in June and July, while retailers will start to pass on tariff costs.
- Jobless claims provide further evidence that the labor market is gradually softening.
Samuel TombsUS
- Changes in import prices rarely feed through instantly to consumer prices; brace for a surge this summer.
- CPI services data remain plagued by residual seasonality; expect much faster increases ahead.
- We still expect core CPI inflation to peak at 3½% in Q4, though that won’t stop the Fed easing.
Samuel TombsUS
- The aggregate DPI is a poor guide to CPI core goods prices, but some components are well correlated.
- The useful component DPIs point to no step up yet in the pace of goods price rises in response to tariffs.
- A very low response rate to NFIB’s survey casts doubt over the May rebound in small business confidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think the core CPI rose by 0.3% in May, but a 0.2% increase looks more likely than a 0.4%.
- Indicators point to a moderate step up in the pace of core goods price rises; the surge is coming from June.
- Discretionary services prices likely were soft again, while the seasonals will pull down other services prices.
Samuel TombsUS
- ADP’s private payroll numbers are a woeful guide to the official data; even back-to-back low prints offer no signal.
- As a result, we are maintaining our forecast for a 125K increase in nonfarm payrolls in May.
- QCEW data imply big downward revisions to payrolls, but mostly because they exclude unauthorized workers.
Samuel TombsUS
- The JOLTS participation and response rates are very low; downward revisions have been common lately.
- Other indicators point to fading demand for new hires; at the same time layoffs are starting to rise.
- Several “soft” data series have reversed their April plunges, providing some reassurance about activity.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 125K rise in May payrolls; the surge in distribution sector jobs likely has petered out...
- ...While the most reliable survey indicators show that rising uncertainty has weighed on hiring.
- Continuing claims data point to another rise in unemployment, increasing pressure on the FOMC to ease.
Samuel TombsUS
- Core capital goods orders fell by almost 2% in real terms in April, the steepest drop in almost four years.
- Surveys of capex intentions still point to further weakness in equipment investment ahead.
- The FOMC minutes will underline the Fed’s plans to wait for more clarity on the impact of tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
- The S&P composite PMI suggests underlying GDP growth is tracking around 2% for now...
- ...but the survey also points to much higher core goods inflation and pressures on services firms too.
- Markets rightly judge that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will boost debt issuance but do little to lift demand.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase data signal a 150K rise in May private payrolls, matching the average of the last three months...
- ...But its skew towards hospitality means it is a poor overall indicator; others have a better track record.
- Major consumer confidence surveys have diverged markedly; we suspect political bias is the problem.
Samuel TombsUS
- The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening.
- But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
- Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.
Samuel TombsUS
- The April CPI report contained early signs of tariffs pushing up goods prices, with much more to come…
- …But services inflation remains relatively muted, and we think further declines are in the pipeline.
- The April NFIB survey points to much weaker capex spending and relatively subdued services inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
