US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Chartbook Samuel Tombs
- Consumption looks far less resilient after big down- ward revisions to spending, especially on services.
- Low saving, flat incomes and fading tax-refund support point to slower consumption growth in Q3.
- The May core PCE deflator was lifted by airline fares and rebounding stock prices; June will be better.
- Markets’ rate expectations have risen this month, despite a big decline in expectations for inflation.
- The FOMC’s hawkish dot plot has played a role, but markets also have become more bullish on growth.
- Official data today for May will signal solid Q2 GDP, but the lift from tax refunds and stockpiling won’t last.
- The June business surveys point to subdued GDP growth, despite momentum in manufacturing.
- The services surveys, airline passenger data and card spending show no sign of a World Cup lift.
- Firms remain cautious about hiring; factory gate in- flation is elevated, but lower oil prices will help soon.
- Oil prices have fallen sharply, dragging down wholesale gas prices; the latter will fall further.
- Prices for jet fuel, agricultural commodities and precious metals also have tumbled.
- The headline rate of CPI inflation already has peaked; we are lowering our H2 forecast by 1/2pp.
- Nine FOMC participants think policy should be tightened this year; six look for more than 25bp...
- ...But no member is voting to hike yet, and all of the Board of Governors likely are in the no-change camp.
- We think the FOMC’s aim was to anchor inflation expectations solidly, thereby reducing the need to hike.
- We think the control measure retail sales rose by just 0.2% in May, the smallest gain since December.
- The flow of tax refunds to households slowed to a trickle last month, but gas prices rose further.
- Near-real time data are mixed; slower growth, rather than an immediate correction, is most likely.
- Corporates in Q1 took on the largest amount of debt since the pandemic; Q2 looks set to be similar...
- ...But this is partly financing AI capex, which will weigh on employment; households are still not borrowing.
- The manufacturing revival is running out of steam; firms will run down inventory now the Strait is open.
- Headline inflation has hit a three-year high, but we see few signs of increasing underlying pressures.
- The energy shock will lift core goods prices in the coming months, but shelter inflation will cool.
- Slowing wage growth suggests a sustained climb in inflation for core services ex-rent is unlikely.
- The plunge in NFIB hiring intentions in May casts doubt over the recent turnaround in payrolls.
- Capex intentions also are very depressed, suggesting large parts of the economy are struggling.
- May’s jump in existing home sales probably is a false dawn: demand is too weak for a sustained recovery.
- Oil output has barely budged in response to the jump in prices, with few signs of an upturn ahead.
- Medium-term futures prices have risen by far less than spot prices, and capital discipline is tighter.
- A slowdown in consumers’ spending looms, as the hit to real incomes from higher gas prices starts to bite.
- The jump in April job openings was driven by a sector where the first estimate usually is revised significantly.
- Other measures of openings have continued to trend down; low quits imply a real wage squeeze is ahead.
- We doubt that the recent acceleration in corporate profits signals a sharp cyclical upswing.
- Weak growth in headline manufacturing output in recent years is hiding a boom in advanced industriess.
- That’s a plus for productivity and US economic leadership, less so for manufacturing employment.
- The construction sector remains mired in recession; data center surge is offsetting little of wider malaise.
Recent increases in consumption look unsustainable.
- Q1 growth in personal consumption was revised down to 1.4%, from 1.6%; April saw a marginal rise.
- Real after-tax income has dropped by 1.1% since April; the saving rate is now effectively at its floor.
- Rising asset prices will help, but sluggish growth in real wages and less fiscal support will limit spending.
Consistent with renewed labor market weakness.
- The increase in asset prices over the past year implies a one percentage point boost to consumption...
- ..A bit less than rules of thumb imply, due to low confidence, already-low saving and high borrowing costs.
- Real incomes probably will rise just 4% year-over-year in Q4, limiting spending growth to 1%%.
Flat trend in permits points to relapse in starts soon.
- Manufacturing firms appear to be bringing forward orders to get ahead of supply chain disruptions…
- …That will lift industrial activity, but only in the short term; upward pressure on goods prices is building.
- The outlook for homebuilding remains dim; we expect real residential investment to fall in 2026.
REAL INCOMES WILL DROP THIS SUMMER...
- ...CORE INFLATION WILL COOL IN Q4, ENABLING RATE CUTS
- Online searches for furniture and household goods are surging, and Redbook’s data look red-hot...
- ...But Bloomberg’s Second Measure data—a better guide to spending—point to an emerging slowdown.
- …That subdued steer is echoed by falling airline pas- senger numbers and weak consumer confidence.
