US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Samuel Tombs
- We look for an underwhelming 0.2% rise in retail sales in November, with control sales unchanged.
- A raft of indicators suggests consumers are tiring; we look for spending growth of just 1% in Q4.
- The Fed is still independent; a grand jury is unlikely to bring an indictment against Chair Powell.
Still weak enough to sustain the pressure for more Fed easing.
- Unadjusted initial and continuing jobless claims are almost unchanged from a year ago...
- ...But this is partly due to low seasonal hiring; claims also miss rising youth and long-term unemployment.
- The Q3 productivity jump merely returns it to trend; tariffs and immigration curbs will limit growth in 2026.
- JOLTS hiring less separations ought to provide a useful cross-check on payrolls, but the track record is poor.
- Small business openings remain low, but they lag the NFIB hiring index too much to refute its recent pick-up.
- The inclusion of retailers means the ISM services survey provides a useful steer on tariff-driven inflation.
- We look for a 0.3% increase in the December core CPI, with the risks skewed strongly towards a 0.4% print.
- Late data collection biased downwards the November CPIs for core goods and lodging away from home...
- ...These CPIs will rebound in December, alongside a big rise in airline fares and possibly auto insurance.
- Tariff revenues fell in December and remain well below levels expected by independent fiscal watchdogs.
- Nearly all of the boost to consumer prices from the tariffs has filtered through; the outlook is benign.
- Home sales are likely to recover in 2026 as mortgage rates fall, but still fall short of pre-pandemic levels.
