22 January 2026 US Monitor The surge in tax refunds will lift Q1 spending growth by about 1%

• Tax refunds this year likely will exceed 2025’s total by about $90B, equal to 0.4% of disposable income...
• ...Most refunds will be made over the next three months, facilitating a temporary jump in spending.
• Low confidence and saving, however, mean we expect only one-third of the extra cash to be spent.

21 January 2026 US Monitor GDPNow's blockbuster Q4 GDP forecast looks highly questionable

• GDPNow’s forecast track record is far from perfect, and its latest projections are based on limited data.
• We think it is overstating the likely strength of consumption, and the boost from trade and inventories. 
• The EU’s proposed tariffs on US exports would hurt little, but services barriers could be a bigger deal. 

16 January 2026 US Monitor Unemployment likely is still rising, despite the drop in claims

• Low claims likely reflect cautious temporary hiring  in Q4, rather than reviving labor demand. 
• Only one quarter of the unemployed claim benefits; new entrants are struggling to find their first job.
• Spending will be little changed and CPI/PCE inflation unaffected if ACA tax credits do not return.

14 January 2026 US Monitor Inflation will continue to undershoot the FOMC's forecasts in 2026

• The core CPI rose at an average monthly pace of just 0.13% between September and December.
• Tariff-driven price rises have slowed, with retailers resorting to cutting other costs instead.
• The run-rate of core goods prices will pick up again, but will undershoot last summer’s pace

13 January 2026 US Monitor November retail sales likely to flag fading consumer momentum

• We look for an underwhelming 0.2% rise in retail sales in November, with control sales unchanged.
• A raft of indicators suggests consumers are tiring; we look for spending growth of just 1% in Q4.
• The Fed is still independent; a grand jury is unlikely to bring an indictment against Chair Powell.

9 January 2026 US Monitor Do flat jobless claims signal the unemployment rate is stabilizing?

• Unadjusted initial and continuing jobless claims are almost unchanged from a year ago...
• ...But this is partly due to low seasonal hiring; claims also miss rising youth and long-term unemployment.
• The Q3 productivity jump merely returns it to trend; tariffs and immigration curbs will limit growth in 2026.

8 January 2026 US Monitor JOLTS data unable to shine light on the biggest labor market questions

• JOLTS hiring less separations ought to provide a useful cross-check on payrolls, but the track record is poor.
• Small business openings remain low, but they lag the NFIB hiring index too much to refute its recent pick-up.
• The inclusion of retailers means the ISM services survey provides a useful steer on tariff-driven inflation.

7 January 2026 US Monitor Core CPI likely jumped in December as data collection issues unwound

• We look for a 0.3% increase in the December core CPI, with the risks skewed strongly towards a 0.4% print.
• Late data collection biased downwards the November CPIs for core goods and lodging away from home...
• ...These CPIs will rebound in December, alongside a big rise in airline fares and possibly auto insurance.

6 January 2026 US Monitor Tariff revenues are starting to fall, further improving the CPI outlook

• Tariff revenues fell in December and remain well below levels expected by independent fiscal watchdogs. 
• Nearly all of the boost to consumer prices from the tariffs has filtered through; the outlook is benign.
• Home sales are likely to recover in 2026 as mortgage rates fall, but still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. 

19 December 2025 US Monitor November CPI data strain credulity, but the outlook is tranquil

• Measurement issues depressed November goods prices, airline fares, rent and auto insurance....
• ...We see no evidence of a slowing in the trend in core-core services prices yet.
• But the outlook looks benign; tariffs are now mostly passed through, while wages and rents are slowing.

18 December 2025 US Monitor Is the NFIB survey's signal of rising hiring intentions credible?

• The NFIB survey’s hiring intentions index increased in November to its highest level since May 2023... 
• ...But first estimates of private payrolls have undershot its implied level by 50K on average since Q1.
• The regional Fed surveys and the Census Bureau’s biweekly business survey show weaker hiring plans.

17 December 2025 US Monitor Undesirably high unemployment to remain the Fed's main worry in 2026

• Private payrolls are no longer slowing and the jump in unemployment was mostly due to the shutdown.
• Unemployment ex-temporary layoffs, however, is above its pre-Covid norm, and wider slack is building.
• Some indicators of hiring indicators have improved recently, but layoff plans also have picked up.

16 December 2025 US Monitor November CPI data unlikely to ruin the festive mood

• Core CPI inflation likely fell to 2.9% in November, slightly below consensus, from 3.0% in September.
• Auto prices have remained unaffected by tariffs; increases in other goods prices have slowed.
• The rebound in airline fares probably has petered out; rent increases likely continue to slow gradually. 

12 December 2025 US Monitor Weak October retail sales likely to set the tone for Q4

• We think retail sales dropped by a hefty 0.7% in October, dragged down by a big fall in auto sales. 
• A raft of indicators suggest that consumers’ spending will grow at a negligible pace in Q4. 
• The Thanksgiving week drop in continuing claims is a seasonal fluke; the trend remains upwards.

11 December 2025 US Monitor Expect a brief skip in the Fed's easing cycle, not a long hiatus

The dots imply three regional Fed presidents who will
vote in 2026 disagreed with this meeting’s easing...

...But we reckon all the permanent voters expect to
ease in 2026; labor data will trigger March action.

Year-over-year growth in the ECI was stable at 3.6%
in Q3, but leading indicators signal a sharp fall soon. 

10 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC likely will signal a Q1 pause, but only tentatively

• Investors already expect a two-meeting hiatus in the easing cycle; the FOMC will not signal a longer wait.
• Recent data surprises have reinforced the case for easing; much more data will be available in January.
• We expect 75bp of easing in 2026, but fiscal policy and FOMC personnel changes cloud the outlook.

9 December 2025 US Monitor Weaker labor demand is more than offsetting the immigration hit

• Immigration has slowed sharply this year, but the labor force likely still is growing, slowly.
• The recent upward creep in unemployment implies labor demand has slowed by more than supply.  
• Higher unemployment will squeeze wage growth and keep the pressure on the FOMC to continue easing.

5 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC to lower inflation forecasts after September's PCE data

• We look for a 0.22% rise in the September core PCE deflator, which would keep the inflation rate at 2.9%...
• ...This will enable FOMC participants to lower their Q4 forecast, clearing the path for easing policy again.
• Initial claims plunged because seasonal adjustment has gone amiss; labor market slack is still rising.

4 December 2025 US Monitor Private payrolls probably holding up better than ADP's data suggest

• ADP’s numbers have considerably understated the initial official estimates of private payrolls this year. 
• Reliable surveys suggest an initial private print of 75K-to-100K in November, still too soft for comfort. 
• A raft of indicators point to consumer weakness in Q4. We think spending will rise by only around ½%.

3 December 2025 US Monitor Is the equilibrium unemployment rate increasing?

• Lower immigration, AI, tariffs and federal job cuts have potential to lift the natural unemployment rate...
• ...But firms are filling openings more easily and plan to slow wage growth, pointing to excess unemployment.
• No signs of excessive unemployment by state or by sector, indicative of a still-low equilibrium rate.