US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Global Datanotes Samuel Tombs
- Openings fell in December to their lowest level since September 2020; AI is weighing more on hiring.
- Small business openings are falling, casting doubt over the upbeat payrolls signal from the NFIB survey.
- The quits rate still points to a further decline in wage growth this year; the Fed has room to ease further.
- Adobe’s Digital Price Index is uncorrelated with the official data; its January jump should be ignored.
- The US is too big an economy for the 2026 World Cup to have anything more than a trivial impact on GDP.
- We expect a small lift to consumers’ spending in the summer, but even that might be hard to see in the data.
- Truflation has been dragged down by new rents, mortgage interest and temporary food promotions...
- ...But these all will have a small or zero impact on the official measure of inflation in January.
- The manufacturing turnaround implied by the January ISM survey looks too good to be true.
- The most reliable surveys collectively signal a 75K rise in January payrolls, but we look for a 100K increase...
- ...Supported by milder-than-usual weather in early January and a partial recovery in retail payrolls.
- The Conference Board’s consumer survey, however, indicates the unemployment rate edged up to 4.5%.
- Tariff revenues will total $29B in January, $5B below October’s peak and $15B below official forecasts.
- More Canadian and Mexican goods than expected have become USMCA compliant, entering tariff-free.
- Solid inventories and plunging imports seem at odds; measurement issues likely are flattering GDP growth.
- Payrolls have slowed further since the FOMC last met and the best indicator of unemployment has jumped.
- Chair Powell was less categorical that the labor market is stabilizing than the statement.
- The Q3 surge in productivity is just a reversion to trend; AI has been only a marginal influence, so far.
- The Conference Board’s survey likely overstates the gloom, but confidence is down across most surveys.
- Consumers report the labor market is still worsening; they’re usually right.
- Winter Storm Fern will have little impact on Q1 GDP, but the lift to CPI energy prices will linger into Q2.
- Industrial metals prices have an almost imperceptible impact on CPI core goods prices.
- Surging precious metals prices signal a 25% rise in jewelry prices, but just a 0.03pp lift to the core CPI.
- The slowdown in rents will dominate, likely subtracting 0.4pp from core CPI inflation by year-end.
Low claims largely due to lower-than-usual post-holiday layoffs.
- Solid increases in consumers’ spending in October and November point to a 2½-to-3% gain in Q4…
- …But the sustainable pace now is far lower, given weak income growth and a rock-bottom saving rate.
- FOMC members’ forecasts for Q4 core PCE inflation were too high; they’re unduly gloomy about 2026 too.
- Tax refunds this year likely will exceed 2025’s total by about $90B, equal to 0.4% of disposable income...
- ...Most refunds will be made over the next three months, facilitating a temporary jump in spending.
- Low confidence and saving, however, mean we expect only one-third of the extra cash to be spent.
- GDPNow’s forecast track record is far from perfect, and its latest projections are based on limited data.
- We think it is overstating the likely strength of consumption, and the boost from trade and inventories.
- The EU’s proposed tariffs on US exports would hurt little, but services barriers could be a bigger deal.
- Low claims likely reflect cautious temporary hiring in Q4, rather than reviving labor demand.
- Only one quarter of the unemployed claim benefits; new entrants are struggling to find their first job.
- Spending will be little changed and CPI/PCE inflation unaffected if ACA tax credits do not return.
Muted rebound in core goods prices suggests tariff pass-through is slowing.
- The core CPI rose at an average monthly pace of just 0.13% between September and December.
- Tariff-driven price rises have slowed, with retailers resorting to cutting other costs instead.
- The run-rate of core goods prices will pick up again, but will undershoot last summer’s pace
- We look for an underwhelming 0.2% rise in retail sales in November, with control sales unchanged.
- A raft of indicators suggests consumers are tiring; we look for spending growth of just 1% in Q4.
- The Fed is still independent; a grand jury is unlikely to bring an indictment against Chair Powell.
Still weak enough to sustain the pressure for more Fed easing.
- Unadjusted initial and continuing jobless claims are almost unchanged from a year ago...
- ...But this is partly due to low seasonal hiring; claims also miss rising youth and long-term unemployment.
- The Q3 productivity jump merely returns it to trend; tariffs and immigration curbs will limit growth in 2026.
- JOLTS hiring less separations ought to provide a useful cross-check on payrolls, but the track record is poor.
- Small business openings remain low, but they lag the NFIB hiring index too much to refute its recent pick-up.
- The inclusion of retailers means the ISM services survey provides a useful steer on tariff-driven inflation.
- We look for a 0.3% increase in the December core CPI, with the risks skewed strongly towards a 0.4% print.
- Late data collection biased downwards the November CPIs for core goods and lodging away from home...
- ...These CPIs will rebound in December, alongside a big rise in airline fares and possibly auto insurance.
