US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Global Daily Monitor Datanotes Samuel Tombs
- The JOLTS participation and response rates are very low; downward revisions have been common lately.
- Other indicators point to fading demand for new hires; at the same time layoffs are starting to rise.
- Several “soft” data series have reversed their April plunges, providing some reassurance about activity.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 125K rise in May payrolls; the surge in distribution sector jobs likely has petered out...
- ...While the most reliable survey indicators show that rising uncertainty has weighed on hiring.
- Continuing claims data point to another rise in unemployment, increasing pressure on the FOMC to ease.
Samuel TombsUS
- Core capital goods orders fell by almost 2% in real terms in April, the steepest drop in almost four years.
- Surveys of capex intentions still point to further weakness in equipment investment ahead.
- The FOMC minutes will underline the Fed’s plans to wait for more clarity on the impact of tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- The S&P composite PMI suggests underlying GDP growth is tracking around 2% for now...
- ...but the survey also points to much higher core goods inflation and pressures on services firms too.
- Markets rightly judge that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will boost debt issuance but do little to lift demand.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase data signal a 150K rise in May private payrolls, matching the average of the last three months...
- ...But its skew towards hospitality means it is a poor overall indicator; others have a better track record.
- Major consumer confidence surveys have diverged markedly; we suspect political bias is the problem.
Samuel TombsUS
- The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening.
- But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
- Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.
Samuel TombsUS
Recent resilience unlikely to last beyond the summer.
Samuel TombsUS
Pointing to a mere 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator, and margin pressure for distributors.
Samuel TombsUS
- The April CPI report contained early signs of tariffs pushing up goods prices, with much more to come…
- …But services inflation remains relatively muted, and we think further declines are in the pipeline.
- The April NFIB survey points to much weaker capex spending and relatively subdued services inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- The FOMC sees little cost in waiting to discover which side of its dual mandate needs most attention.
- A lot more tariff-sensitive data and news will come between the June and July meetings; the FOMC will wait.
- BED data point to a 20K fall in the birth-death model’s contribution to monthly payroll growth ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets have relaxed and the economy is holding up, so the FOMC needn’t signal a June easing today.
- The FOMC will have two more CPI reports and news on reciprocal tariffs if it waits until July.
- The latest trade data suggest pre-tariff stockpiling was very limited outside of a couple of sectors.
Samuel TombsUS
Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
Samuel TombsUS
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
Samuel TombsUS
The post-election pick-up in labor demand has fully unwound.
Samuel TombsUS
No preemptive layoffs by tariff-afflicted firms, but cuts are likely when sales struggle.
Samuel TombsUS
Slowing, not careering towards recession.
Samuel TombsUS
