PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, June 18 Meeting

Committee is more clearly split; weaker labor market to tip the balance by September.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

11 July 2025 US Monitor Immigration probably will continue to add meaningfully to labor supply

• President Trump’s policies will slow the flow of immigration into the US, but not halt it entirely.
• The idea that a big migrant exodus from the labor market is already underway is at odds with the data.
• We continue to think labor demand will grow more slowly than supply, lifting the unemployment rate.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, June

Plunging response rate raises big questions about reliability.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, June

A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, June

Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, June

Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators, May

GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, May

IMay slump brings sales back to reality.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence / Chair Powell Monetary Policy Testimony

Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, May

Sales likely to continue to stagnate.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, May

Underlying sales volumes holding up...for now.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, June 7

More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

17 June 2025 US Monitor Will new FOMC forecasts shift markets' pricing of further easing?

• The median FOMC member this week probably will envisage easing by just 25bp this year...
• ...But the case for expecting more easing remains robust; signs of labor market weakness are growing.
• The $10pb rise in oil prices will lift the CPI by 0.2%, likely dulling Mr. Trump’s appetite for more tariffs.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, May

Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, May

We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, May

More noise than signal.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

5 June 2025 US Monitor The downward trend in construction spending has further to run

• Construction spending has dropped significantly in recent months, a trend we expect to continue…
• …Falling spending points to small but sustained declines in construction payrolls ahead.
• Auto sales plunged by 9.4% in May, signalling the broader wave of pre-tariff purchases is now fading.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Manufacturing remains under pressure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, May 24

Cracks starting to show in the labor market.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, April

Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US