US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)
- An unprecedented surge in the goods trade deficit in Q1 points to a huge drag on GDP growth.
- We think GDP fell by about 1%, but total private sector demand likely still rose at a healthy rate.
- The looser labor market points to much lower wage growth and underlying services inflation ahead.
- We expect GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, although big questions hang over net trade and inventories.
- GDP likely will broadly stagnate over the rest of this year, as tariffs hit real incomes and investment.
- Shortages of products made in China are unlikely to emerge in stores until July.
Equipment investment set to slump after a solid Q1.
Sales likely to flatline at best from here.
Sales likely to drop back very soon.
- Fear of a severe economic and market hit will dissuade President Trump from firing Chair Powell...
- ...But the president’s tariffs show he is willing to throw caution to the wind on economic policy.
- The S&P Global PMI likely will indicate higher goods inflation, but services inflation remaining in check.
- The Department of Government Efficiency will achieve only a fraction of its spending cut targets…
- …So reduced federal spending looks set to be only a small headwind for the economy.
- The DOGE federal job cuts are also on course to have only a minor impact on the overall labor market.
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Further signs of uncertainty weighing on housing.
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
Real consumption likely grew by about 1% in Q1.
- Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
- Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
- But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.
A slump in manufacturing activity and surge in goods inflation lies ahead.
- The March retail sales report suggests consumers’ spending rose by 1% in Q1.
- But the hit from tariffs points to stagnant consumption, more or less, in Q2 and Q3.
- The 0.3% increase in March manufacturing output looks like the calm before the tariff storm.
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION
- Manufacturing output likely jumped by 0.5% in March, returning to its highest level since late 2022…
- …Don’t be deceived; a manufacturing recession is likely in the coming months on the back of tariffs.
- Supply chains look set for disruption, and consumer, industrial and export demand will all soften.
- Pre-tariff purchases of auto and other durable goods imply a strong headline retail sales number...
- ...But real spending on goods looks set to slump over the next few quarters.
- Tariff exemptions for tech leave the gloomy big picture for the broader economy little changed.
A much bigger rise in claims lies ahead.
Confidence crumbling even before "Liberation Day".
Weak, but far from definitive.
