1 April 2026 US Monitor. The labor market remains too weak for the FOMC to ignore indefinitely

• February’s JOLTS report continues to paint a very weak picture of labor demand. 
• The Conference Board survey’s job numbers also suggest payroll gains will remain very sluggish…
• …Putting further upward pressure on unemployment and undermining wage growth. 

31 March 2026 US Monitor Stronger sales growth in February will obscure the weak trend, for now

• February retail sales likely were boosted by a rebound in auto sales and the impact of higher gas prices.
• Sales likely also were boosted by bigger-than-usual tax refunds and unseasonably warm weather.
• But the underlying trend in core sales is weak, and likely to step down further as the energy shock bites.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, March 2026

Energy shock adding to the headwinds for growth and employment.

25 March 2026 US Monitor The disinflationary case for AI is far from clear cut

• Calls that AI already justifies lower interest rates look ill-founded, given the limited productivity boost so far.
• AI might prove more disinflationary in the future, but the picture is highly uncertain.
• A faster “speed limit” for the economy seems more likely than much lower inflation and interest rates.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, February 2026

Fundamentally weak.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, March 2026

Little to cheer for homebuilders.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production / Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Underlying manufacturing output still looks anemic.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, January 2026

The underlying trend in core sales still is slowing.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, February 2026

Encouraging signs, but an unreliable guide to the hard data.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, February 2026

Encouraging signs, but big headwinds remain.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, February 2026

Still pointing to a weaker labor market, but big recent revisions raise questions.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, November / December 2025

The latest sales data are near worthless; homebuilders are still under pressure.

PM Datanote: US International Trade / Advance Inventories, December 2025

Much weaker GDP growth of about 2% now looks likely in Q4

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, January 2026

Firmly on hold…for now.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders / Industrial Production

Less to the recent upturns than initially meets the eye.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, February 2026

The outlook for homebuilders remains tough.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, December 2025

Weak underlying sales probably a sign of what's to come.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, January 2026

Probably overstating the labor market’s health.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, January 2026

Too unreliable to be of much use.

PM Datanote: US International Trade, November 2025

Trade's contribution to Q4 GDP growth probably significant but not enormous.