US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)
- February’s solid retail sales likely were lifted by the weather and a short-lived boost from tax refunds.
- The underlying trend probably is still soft, and looks set to slow further amid the shock to energy prices.
- We think consumption growth of around 2% in Q1 will be followed by unchanged spending in Q2.
- February’s JOLTS report continues to paint a very weak picture of labor demand.
- The Conference Board survey’s job numbers also suggest payroll gains will remain very sluggish…
- …Putting further upward pressure on unemployment and undermining wage growth.
- February retail sales likely were boosted by a rebound in auto sales and the impact of higher gas prices.
- Sales likely also were boosted by bigger-than-usual tax refunds and unseasonably warm weather.
- But the underlying trend in core sales is weak, and likely to step down further as the energy shock bites.
- Calls that AI already justifies lower interest rates look ill-founded, given the limited productivity boost so far.
- AI might prove more disinflationary in the future, but the picture is highly uncertain.
- A faster “speed limit” for the economy seems more likely than much lower inflation and interest rates.
- Consumers’ spending probably slowed in Q4, despite November’s respectable rise in retail sales.
- We look for spending growth of 1½-to-2%, far weaker than the 3.5% leap in Q3.
- The latest PPI data show retailers are continuing to shield consumers from tariff-driven cost increases.
- We think GDP grew by 3½% in Q3, underpinned by a solid increase in consumers’ spending.
- AI-related capex likely also lifted fixed investment, while net trade made a big positive contribution too.
- But growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q4, mostly due to weakness among households.
