17 June 2025 US Monitor Will new FOMC forecasts shift markets' pricing of further easing?

• The median FOMC member this week probably will envisage easing by just 25bp this year...
• ...But the case for expecting more easing remains robust; signs of labor market weakness are growing.
• The $10pb rise in oil prices will lift the CPI by 0.2%, likely dulling Mr. Trump’s appetite for more tariffs.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, May

Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, May

We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, May

More noise than signal.

5 June 2025 US Monitor The downward trend in construction spending has further to run

• Construction spending has dropped significantly in recent months, a trend we expect to continue…
• …Falling spending points to small but sustained declines in construction payrolls ahead.
• Auto sales plunged by 9.4% in May, signalling the broader wave of pre-tariff purchases is now fading.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Manufacturing remains under pressure.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, May 24

Cracks starting to show in the labor market.

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, April

Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, April

Consumption still resilient, but a slowdown looms.