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5th Sep 2021 21:30U.K., Economic Monitor

  • From now on, the U.K. Monitor on the first Monday of each month will summarise recent forecast changes.
  • We now think GDP flatlined in July, so our Q3 fore- cast, 1.5% q/q, is well below the consensus, 2.4%.
  • Our 3.7% forecast for the CPI inflation in Q4—probably the peak—is below the MPC's new 4.0% estimate.

August bank rate BoE car sales committee core cpi covid-19 cpi cpi inflation crude oil prices economists fed forecasts funds gdp growth households index inflation investors July July gdp labour monetary monetary policy mpc October oil oil prices policy policy rates q2 q3 q3 growth retail retail sales supply tariff treasury u.s.

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Keywords for: Forecast Review: The Consensus is Still too Upbeat on Q3 GDP

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