Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
The U.K. yield curve has not inverted and inversion is not a reliable bellwether of U.K. recessions.
Equity prices for consumer-facing companies have fallen sharply, but not yet to recession levels.
The oil price has been this high before without triggering a downturn, and GDP is less energy-intensive now.
This publication is only available to UK Economic Research (Monitor) subscribers
Pantheon Macroeconomics produce daily publications for U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, UK and Asia, as well as analysis on key data within a few minutes of their release.
brent crude, capex, commodity prices, consumer services, energy, energy prices, equity prices, ftse, gdp growth, labour, labour demand, mpc, oil, oil price, oil prices, ois, ois market, q2, recession, recessions, retail sales, russia, summer, swap rates, u.s., yield curve, yields, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence