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CPI inflation likely would hit the 2% target by April 2023, if energy prices instantly return to early January levels.
Past experience suggests a temporary 2.5pp VAT cut would lower CPI inflation by only 0.3-to-0.6pp.
A 10% depreciation of sterling would boost the CPI by 0.75pp after one year, and by 2.75pp in the long term.
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