Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

23rd May 2022 18:00U.K., Daily Monitor

CPI inflation likely would hit the 2% target by April 2023, if energy prices instantly return to early January levels.

Past experience suggests a temporary 2.5pp VAT cut would lower CPI inflation by only 0.3-to-0.6pp.

A 10% depreciation of sterling would boost the CPI by 0.75pp after one year, and by 2.75pp in the long term.

core cpi cpi cpi inflation current account deficit depreciation electricity electricity prices energy energy prices exports futures prices headline rate January July labour mpc natural gas October Ofgem oil oil prices restaurants September sterling vat vat cut

Are you taking full advantage of our daily publications?

Pantheon Macroeconomics produce daily publications for U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, UK and Asia, as well as analysis on key data within a few minutes of their release.

U.S. Economic Research
Eurozone Economic Research
Latin America Economic Research
UK Economic Research
Asia Economic Research
 

Sign up for your complimentary trial

To start your complimentary trial, highlight the areas you are interested in subcribing to and click next.

United States

Eurozone

United Kingdom

China +

Emerging Asia

Latin America

Next

 
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Considering Energy, VAT and Sterling Scenarios for CPI Inflation

core cpi, cpi, cpi inflation, current account, deficit, depreciation, electricity, electricity prices, energy, energy prices, exports, futures prices, headline rate, January, July, labour, mpc, natural gas, October, Ofgem, oil, oil prices, restaurants, September, sterling, vat, vat cut, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence